300 thE sudan handbook(Signed by only one significant rebel group, the DPA may have contrib-
uted to deepening the divisions amongst Darfur’s rebels.)
On paper, these peace deals offer insights into Sudan’s future: a peace
based on unified military command and reconciliation in the north, and
a peace based on a balance of forces between the north and the south.
But that vision is far from realization. One of the main reasons is limited
progress on security structures. Sudan is still a country of militias,
in north and south. Militias in the remote peripheries can pressure
Khartoum with small insurgencies, and if they survive the counter-
insurgency that follows, they can make peace agreements where they
exchange their weapons for government posts and regional investment.
These agreements are not necessarily implemented in practice, but can
help to maintain an exhausting temporary peace. This is the story of
many of the myriad former rebel factions in Darfur.
The elections of 2010 were supposed to help address the fragmentation
of the country. Neither the SPLM nor the NCP had ever faced a competi-
tive electoral test, and electoral politics might have allowed regional
or other constituencies to articulate their interests. Voter turnout in
the elections was high, but hopes of increased representativeness were
disappointed. The SPLM and other major parties boycotted the polls in
the north, leaving small parties to stand up to the enormous and wealthy
NCP electoral machine. The NCP factionalized these small parties, and
in most constituencies opposition parties only won if there was no NCP
candidate standing against them. With only two real choices, the election
delivered overwhelming victories for the ruling NCP in the north and
for the SPLM in the south, revealing little of the real political interests
of ordinary voters. If those divisions are to be overcome, both parties
will need to develop mechanisms to mediate them, or insurgencies may
continue. Sudan’s latest interim constitution was an ambitious one, and
achieved some of its many objectives: a ceasefire, a government in the
south, and an election. But it does not seem to have made good its central
goal, which was to make the unity of Sudan attractive, and to limit the
possibility of fragmentation.The Sudan Handbook, edited by John Ryle, Justin Willis, Suliman Baldo and Jok Madut Jok. © 2011 Rift Valley Institute and contributors
(www.riftvalley.net).