The Sudan Handbook

EPiloGuE: thE nEXt sudan 311

resources such as water and grazing, already sharpened by environmental

pressures. As a result of the CPA and, in some places, a lengthy series

of parallel local negotiations, an intermittent peace came to prevail in

most of the north-south frontier area. But the CPA has ushered in a new

phase of clandestine proxy military activity and on-going manipulation

of local political rivalries. And these are now further complicated by

electoral politics. In the meantime the mineral wealth in parts of the

borderlands is being exploited at a growing rate, to the benefit of the

National Government in Khartoum and the Government of Southern

Sudan. These authorities have been simultaneously engaged in negotia-

tions on re-demarcation of the north-south borderline. And both have

made preparations for a possible return to war.

Addressing local interests and aspirations on both sides of the frontier

• and the extent to which they do or do not reflect the interests of the
  governing powers – is vital to keeping the wider peace process in Sudan
  on track. The failure of peace negotiations in Darfur illustrates the diffi-
  culty of ending a civil war without taking into account the rival interests
  of particular communities that inhabit a specific zone of conflict and that
  share its resources, and understanding the patterns of leadership in those
  communities. And the case of Abyei has shown, specifically, that detailed
  elucidation of the history of rival local claims to resources is necessary
  for there to be a chance of resolving conflicts that may arise.
  Along the north-south border there are many other Abyeis. That is
  to say, other communities in long-standing relationships of coopera-
  tion and confrontation, each with a particular sense of their claims over
  local resources and with a particular, historically-defined relation to the
  government and other powers in the land. On the northern side, the
  popular consultations provided for Blue Nile and South Kordofan in the
  CPA fall short of the right to self-determination as accorded to the people
  of Southern Sudan. And the prospect of an independent South Sudan
  has created a feeling of abandonment among inhabitants of these areas,
  a perception that they have no political or military backup in challenging
  the Khartoum government on their political future; these are likely flash-

The Sudan Handbook, edited by John Ryle, Justin Willis, Suliman Baldo and Jok Madut Jok. © 2011 Rift Valley Institute and contributors points for future conflict.

(www.riftvalley.net).