The Economist February 26th 2022 19
BriefingWar in Ukraine“T
here will be no escalation in the
coming week either, or in the week
after that, or in the coming month,” de
clared Vladimir Chizhov, Russia’s envoy to
the European Union, on February 16th.
“Wars in Europe rarely start on a Wednes
day.” And indeed it was early on Thursday,
February 24th, as dawn broke over Uk
raine, that Vladimir Putin, Russia’s presi
dent, took to television to declare war on
Ukraine in the form of a “special military
operation” to “denazify” the country.
Within minutes explosions were heard
near Kyiv’s main airport, as well as in many
other cities. Video footage taken in Uk
raine showed cruise missiles slicing
through the air and slamming into build
ings. Mr Putin had launched what is sure to
be Europe’s most intense war in a genera
tion—possibly its largest since the second
world war. It will shake his regime to its
foundations, debilitate Russia’s economy
and fracture Russian society. It will shatter
existing assumptions about European se
curity. It could well send shock waves
through the global economy.
As The Economistwent to press, an initial wave of missiles had struck several of
Ukraine’s airports and other targets across
the country, all of which Russia claimed
were military. Armoured forces had then
begun rolling in not just from Russia itself
but also from Belarus. They were the van
guard of a force of over 150,000 organised
in over 110 of the battalion tactical groups
which are Russia’s basic fighting forma
tion. Russian forces were “literally pouring
into Ukraine from Crimea”, according to
Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting.
Western security officials expect two
major Russian thrusts. One, of which the
landing in Mariupol would seem to be part,
is a pincer movement aimed at encircling
and shattering Ukrainian forces around
the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, pre
venting those forces from retreating west
over the Dnieper river. The second is a
drive south from Belarus towards Kyiv,
which lies just 140km south of the border.
Attacks elsewhere in the country will be
aimed at disrupting Ukraine’s ability to re
spond to the advances.
The speech with which Mr Putin an
nounced the war’s first shots was bloodcurdling. He put his aggression into the
context of the West having “tried to finish
us off, to destroy us completely,” after the
collapse of the Soviet Union. The countries
of natowere “supporting Nazis and na
tionalists in Ukraine who will never for
give the people of Crimea their choice of
joining with Russia.” No quarter could be
given to them. And Russia “is one of the
greatest nuclear powers in the world and
has certain advantages in the newest weap
ons. Nobody should be in any doubt that
any direct aggression against our country
will lead to crushing and most horrible
consequences for any potential aggressor.”
Oil and gas prices jumped in response
to the invasion; the Brent crude bench
mark rose past $100 per barrel for the first
time since 2014. Global stockmarkets fell.
Moscow’s exchange was temporarily sus
pended and plunged on reopening. Civil
ian airliners were told to stay clear of Uk
rainian airspace.
“Russia alone is responsible for the
death and destruction this attack will
bring, and the United States and its allies
and partners will respond in a united and
decisive way,” said a statement from Presi
dent Joe Biden. Having imposed an initial
round of sanctions earlier in the week, he
said he would announce further measures
on February 24th. The eu, Britain and other
countries look set to follow suit. A g7video
summit was called for later in the day; eu
leaders are also due to discuss the crisis.
Ukraine, for its part, was stunned. Its
foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, tweetedK YIV, MOSCOW, SLOVYANSK AND WASHINGTON, DC
Vladimir Putin has brought war back to EuropeA bad beginning