The Economist - USA (2022-02-26)

TheEconomistFebruary26th 2022 BriefingWarinUkraine 21

Americans much more easily than they can
Ukrainians.
At  a  meeting  of  the  national­security
council televised before the speech—a gro­
tesque  spectacle  of  fear,  humiliation  and
isolation—Viktor  Zolotov,  a  former  body­
guard  of  Mr  Putin’s  who  now  commands
hundreds  of  thousands  of  soldiers  in  the
national  guard,  put  Mr  Putin’s  position
simply:  “We  don’t  have  a  border  with  Uk­
raine.  It  is  America’s  border,  because  they
are  the  masters  there,  and  all  these...are
vassals. And the fact that they are pumping
them  up  full  of  arms  and  are  trying  to
create  nuclear  arsenals—all  this  will  cost
us in future. So we must recognise these re­
publics...and  move  further,  to  defend  our
country.”  The  baseless  fear  that  Ukraine,
briefly  a  nuclear­weapons  state  after  the
collapse  of  the  Soviet  Union,  might  be­
come one again is a particularly disturbing
casus  belli  for  the  millions  of  Russians
fearing war.
Mr  Putin  needs  such  trickery.  Russian
society is currently divided as never before
in  his  reign.  Many  who  would  not  have
agreed with him a year or two ago will nod
grimly as they read Kirill Rogov, a political
analyst, writing that “the consequences of
aggression  will  cause  greater  damage  to
Russia  and  its  economy  than  the  destruc­
tion  of  Ukrainian  infrastructure  would
bring to nato.”   

Storm after the calm
If  for  many  in  Russia  the  speech  was  a
shock, for some in Ukraine it was just more
of  the  same.  Not  only  had  eight  years  of
conflict  made  war  numbingly  familiar.
Nearly  four  months  of  remorseless  mili­
tary  build­up  meant  it  would  take  some­
thing  shockingly  unfamiliar  to  stir  real
panic.In  October  American  intelligence
agencies picked up signs that Mr Putin was
beginning  to  move  military  forces  to  the
Ukrainian  border.  Around  the  same  time,
whether through human sources or inter­
cepted  communications,  they  got  hold  of

plans  which  showed  Mr  Putin’s  intention

to  invade  his  neighbour  with  the  largest

military  force  built  up  in  Europe  for  de­

cades.  Bill  Burns,  the  director  of  the  cia,

was sent to Moscow in early November to

tell  Mr  Putin  he  had  been  rumbled—but

the build­up continued. 

As it reached its peak in mid­February,

with most of Russia’s combat power within

striking  distance  of  Ukraine,  the  Kremlin

began claiming that Ukraine had commit­

ted  “genocide”  in  the  Donbas  region  and

was  about  to  seize  it  by  force.  There  fol­

lowed  a  series  of  provocations—explo­

sions  in  Donbas,  the  shelling  of  Russian

soil and alleged Ukrainian incursions. 

No particular moment during this esca­

lation  set  alarm  bells  ringing  throughout

Ukraine,  in  part  because  the  government

eager to reduce damage to the economy as

capital took flight, bond yields rose and the

currency  depreciated,  resolutely  urged

calm. Anastasia, a bartender in Slovyansk,

a  town  in  the  Donetsk  oblast  which  is

80km  or  so  back  from  what  was,  until

Thursday  morning,  the  contact  line  be­

tween the Ukrainian army and the separat­

ist forces, spoke for many when she said on

February 22nd after that although she was

“very  scared”  by  the  real  prospect  of  war

with Russia, it took more than a single item

of news to sway her mood. “I saw it on In­

stagram,” she said of Mr Putin’s speech. “I

felt  nothing,  I  thought  nothing.  I  am  very

tired from all this.”

Nevertheless, the calm shown by Ukrai­

nians throughout the months of escalation

had started to dissipate in the days before

the  new  invasion  began.  In  both  Donbas

and  Kyiv  some  of  those  with  financial

means  and  flexible  lives  were  making

plans  to  move,  either  to  Ukraine’s  west  or

abroad. Some had gone already—as indeed

have some wealthy Russians. 

On February 22nd Volodymyr Zelensky,

the  president,  reaffirmed  his  belief  that

“there will not be an all­out war against Uk­

raine.”  But  he  also  brought  together  the

leaders  of  all  the  country’s  factions,  in­

cluding his arch­rival Petro Poroshenko, a

man who just a month ago he was threat­

ening  with  jail,  in  a  show  of  unity.  A  new

phrase entered the political lexicon in Ky­

iv: “Oboronnaya koalitsiya,” or defence co­

alition.  That  evening  he  called  up

Ukraine’s 200,000 army reserves. The fol­

lowing day he declared a state of emergen­

cy across Ukraine. 

The hard way

Andriy  Zagorodnyuk,  a  former  Ukrainian

minister  of  defence,  said  at  the  time  that

the  country’s  military  leadership  was

working  off  two  base  scenarios—one  bad,

one worse. The first assumed that Moscow

would  allow  itself  a  strategic  pause,  per­

haps taking the opportunity to rotate tired

troops, before moving into the parts of the

Donetsk  and  Luhansk  oblasts  which  the

separatists claim but do not occupy. In the

past,  Mr  Putin  has  often  paused,  or  even

taken  a  tactical  step  back,  to  throw  oppo­

nents  off  balance.  Some  of  Mr  Zelensky’s

intelligence  officials  thought  the  war

which would follow might largely be con­

fined to the existing conflict area and terri­

tory the separatists seized in 2014 but later

lost,  such  as  Slovyansk.  Such  a  war  might

find more favour with Russians. 

That  assessment  differed  starkly  from

the  one  offered  by  America  and  Britain.

They had believed for months that Mr Pu­

tin  intended  something  much  larger.  An

action limited to Donbas would have given

him  little  of  value:  indeed  it  might  have

thrown  away  a  good  position.  While  the

oblasts in which the two rebel republics sit

were  still  part  of  Ukraine,  the  separatist’s

claims  could  be  used  to  disrupt  Ukraine’s

policy. 

That  was  the  point  of  the  “Minsk  ac­

cords”  negotiated  by  Russia,  Ukraine,

France  and  Germany—the  so­called  Nor­

mandy  group.  Those  accords,  which

brought a bout of major battles in the Don­

bas to an end in 2015, required that the sep­

UKRAINE Luhansk RUSSIA

Oblast

Donetsk

Oblast

Donetsk

Mariupol

Kharkiv

Luhansk

Controlledby

Russian-backed

separatists

Belgorod

Slovyansk

Kramatorsk

75 km

Kyiv

Moscow

Source:Organisationfor Security and

Co-operationinEurope, Feb 22nd 2022

Explosions

On the brink Other ceasefire violations

Ceasefire violations in Donetsk and Luhansk reported by OSCE, by both sides

Source:OrganisationforSecurityandCo-operationinEurope

2,500

2,000

,500

,000

500

0

Explosions Otherviolations

181522 5 12 19 22

January 2022 February

Feb 10th Russia and Belarus

begin military exercises

Feb 12th US orders evacuation

of Ukraine embassy sta

Feb 17th Nursery damaged in Luhansk shelling

Feb 18th Thousands evacuated

from Donetsk and Luhansk

Jan23rdBritainwarnsthatRussia

isplottingregimechangein Kyiv

Jan14thUSwarnsRussia

ispreparingfalse-flag

operationtojustifyinvasion

← Dec 3rd 2021 US intelligence warn that Russia

plans “multi-front” invasion of Ukraine