26 The Americas The EconomistAugust 3rd 2019
OntheirwayintooroutoftheSimónBolívarInternationalAirportinCaracas
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artín vizcarra, Peru’s mild-man-
nered president, knows how to spring
a surprise. As he wound up his 94-minute
Independence Day speech to congress on
July 28th, he called on lawmakers to end
their terms, and his, a year early by voting
to hold a general election next April. Peru’s
32m citizens are crying out for “a new be-
ginning”, the president declared. They
should decide the country’s destiny “even
if this means that all of us have to go”.
Mr Vizcarra’s gambit is a sign of frustra-
tion. He became president 16 months ago,
when his predecessor, Pedro Pablo Kuczyn-
ski, was forced out of office over allega-
tions that he had helped secure public con-
tracts for Odebrecht, a Brazilian
construction firm that has bribed officials
and politicians across Latin America. Mr
Vizcarra has spent most of that time trying
to reform a political and judicial system so
rotten that all living former presidents are
under house arrest, in jail or trying to avoid
that fate. Congress, whose largest party is
the opposition Popular Force (fp), has tried
to stop him.
It has not succeeded entirely. Last year
congress reluctantly passed four reforms
of politics and the judiciary. Three of those
were enacted after a referendum in Decem-
ber. They included barring sitting con-
gressmen from being re-elected. In April
this year Mr Vizcarra submitted another 12
political reforms. When congress resisted
he selected six that he deems vital. His pri-
ority is to empower a committee chosen by
the supreme court to decide whether a law-
maker charged with a crime would lose im-
munity from prosecution. Now, congress
itself makes that decision. It has so far re-
fused to enact Mr Vizcarra’s proposal and
has modified other reform ideas. For exam-
ple, it has delayed by ten years until 2031
the date for requiring parties to field equal
numbers of male and female candidates.
Until now, Mr Vizcarra has tried to deal
with congressional intransigence by sub-
mitting his government to votes of confi-
dence. These operate under peculiar rules
in Peru. A first government defeat in a pres-
idential term leads to the dissolution of the
cabinet and the appointment by the presi-
dent of a new one. That happened in Sep-
tember 2017, when Mr Kuczynski was still
president (and Mr Vizcarra was vice-presi-
dent). A second would trigger not only the
cabinet’s downfall but congressional elec-
tions, while leaving the president in office.Mr Vizcarra used the leverage this gives
him in September last year. Congress voted
its confidence in his government, then en-
acted the first set of reforms he sought. He
tried the same tactic in June this year, with
less effect. Congress backed the govern-
ment but thwarted some reforms. Hence
Mr Vizcarra’s call for new general elections.
What will happen now is uncertain. Op-
position lawmakers want to get rid of the
president without leaving office them-
selves. Tamar Arimborgo, an fpcongress-
woman, called him a “dictator” for advo-
cating early elections. His foes could try to
impeach him. The vice-president, Mer-
cedes Aráoz, would then take his place.
But the constitution makes it hard to
take out the president in a surgical strike. If
Mr Vizcarra resigns, and induces Ms Aráoz
to follow, the president of congress would
be obliged to call general elections. Mr Viz-
carra could call for a third vote of confi-
dence. This would put congress in a quan-
dary. An endorsement of the government
would clear the way for the early vote that
Mr Vizcarra wants. A no-confidence vote
would allow him to call for a new legisla-
tive election. In either case, the 130 law-
makers would be out.
One way or another, Mr Vizcarra and the
current congress may well be gone next
year. Government ministers argue that the
country cannot afford another two years of
gridlock. The economy is adrift. gdpex-
panded by 1.5% in the first five months of2019, compared with 4.9% in the same per-
iod a year ago, according to the central
bank. Mr Vizcarra is right to say that Peru
needs a functioning government.
But it is not clear that fresh elections
will provide one. More than 20 political
parties are registered to put up presidential
and congressional candidates. Many have
been tarnished by the Odebrecht scandal.
fpand apra, another leading opposition
party, have no credible presidential candi-
dates. fp’s founder and leader, Keiko Fuji-
mori, has been in detention since October
awaiting trial for accepting illegal contri-
butions from Odebrecht in 2011, when she
ran the first of two losing presidential cam-
paigns. apra’s long-time leader, Alan Gar-
cía, a former president, committed suicide
in April this year as he faced arrest for tak-
ing bribes from the Brazilian firm.
Mr Vizcarra does not have a party or a
political heir. When Ipsos, a pollster, asked
Peruvians recently for their views on 16 pol-
iticians, just one had an approval rating of
higher than 10%. That was George Forsyth,
a former football goalkeeper who since Jan-
uary has been mayor of La Victoria, a dis-
trict of Lima, Peru’s capital. A third of Peru-
vians support no politician. Mr Vizcarra’s
proposed election, if it happens, would be a
leap into the unknown.
He knows that the way out of Peru’s im-
passe is better political parties and leaders.
Unfortunately, it is being barred by the very
system he wants to change. ^7LIMA
The president wants to end the current
congress, and his presidencyPeruMartín’s
manoeuvre