The EconomistAugust 3rd 2019 Europe 45T
he eastern siberianlandscape does
not normally resemble hell. In winter it
is blanketed in snow; in summer, its for-
ests are lush and its wetlands soggy. This
year, however, the region is on fire, as are
large parts of the Arctic Circle.
Nothing on this scale has been observed
since high-resolution satellite records of
fires in the globe’s far north began in 2003
(see chart). A study in 2013 suggests that
even the amount of burning seen in boreal
regions in recent decades was outside the
norm for the past 10,000 years. Researchers
call this year’s events “unprecedented”. The
data this summer are “insane”, says Guil-
lermo Rein, an expert in peat fires at Impe-
rial College in London.
The fires began in June, spurred by an
extremely hot and dry early summer. It was
the hottest June on record, globally, ac-
cording to America’s National Oceano-
graphic and Atmospheric Administration.
Temperature increases owing to global
warming are not evenly distributed, and
the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the
rest of the planet.In the regions that are
burning, temperatures peaked at 8-10°C
warmer than the average from 1981 to 2010.
This has dried out the landscape, produc-
ing tinder for natural forest fires that were
probably ignited by lightning.
So far, hundreds of above-ground fires
have been recorded by satellites, covering
hundreds of thousands of hectares in the
Arctic and sub-Arctic, from Eastern Siberia
to Alaska and Greenland. The European Co-
pernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
estimates that fires within the Arctic Circle
have produced more than 100m tonnes of
carbon dioxide, or roughly what Belgium
emits in a year. That is a lot. But burnt vege-
tation can regrow within a decade, and in
doing so reabsorbs much of the released
carbon dioxide.
It is what is happening below ground
that most worries ecologists and climate
scientists. Many of the Siberian and Alas-
kan fires are burning carbon-dense peat
soils, which would normally be water-
logged. Peat fires produce much more car-
bon dioxide and methane from the com-
bustion of carbon that has been locked in
the ground for hundreds or thousands of
years. Burning soil therefore eliminates
important carbon sinks that cannot be re-
placed on any useful timescale.
This in turn sets in motion positive
feedback loops which are not accounted
for in the climate projections of the Inter-
governmental Panel on Climate Change.
Climate researchers do cite the possibility
that global warming will thaw Arctic per-
mafrost, releasing large amounts of stored
greenhouse gases. But if fires in the region
become more common, that could have
even bigger consequences. The emissions
from this year’s fires make it more likely
that the conditions will be met for peat to
ignite again in coming summers, produc-
ing ever more emissions, and so on. Under
these conditions, “I am convinced that it
will actually be wildfires that will release
much faster and bigger amounts of car-
bon,” rather than melting permafrost, says
Mr Rein. The fires also produce a fine blacksoot known as black carbon which, if
dropped on the Arctic sea ice by favourable
winds, will darken its surface, making it
more likely to absorb sunlight and melt.
This decreases the reflectivity of the region
as a whole (blue water absorbs more solar
energy than white ice) and further in-
creases Arctic warming.
The full scale of the Arctic fires’ impact
will not be known for months. The satellite
data being used to estimate emissions
from the wildfires cannot capture fires that
are smouldering below the ground, which
could double or triple the impact, accord-
ing to Mr Rein.
Smog from the fires is blanketing much
of Siberia, from Kazakhstan to the Bering
Sea, with carbon monoxide and other nas-
ties. On July 31st, after a petition to declare a
state of emergency garnered more than
800,000 signatures, President Vladimir
Putin ordered the army to help fight the
fires. It is likely to be too little too late.
Fighting fires that have grown to such co-
lossal sizes in remote regions with few
roads is difficult or impossible.
The task is even harder for large peat
fires. In South-East Asia, peat fires are
caused by local environmental change, in-
cluding drainage and deforestation to
make way for crops. “What is scary about
the Arctic fires is that they are driven by cli-
mate change, and as such there’s very little
you can do,” says Thomas Smith, who stud-
ies wildfires at the London School of Eco-
nomics. “You can’t raise the water table for
an area the scale of northern Alaska or Sibe-
ria.” Few natural peat fires this big have
ever been successfully managed, and then
only by pumping billions of gallons of wa-
ter over land. The only way to deal with the
spread of these fires is to slow the rate of
global warming, by stepping up work on
cutting greenhouse-gas emissions. Don’t
hold your breath.^7Abnormally high rates of wildfire and peat fire in the Arctic are the latest
symptom of climate change, and are likely to accelerate it
The Arctic
Ice and fire
A drop in the oceanThe great burningSource:EuropeanCentreforMedium-RangeWeather
Forecasts/CopernicusAtmosphereMonitoringServiceArcticCircle,fireradiativepower,gigawattsJune July051015202530Mean daily total, 2003-18 Daily total, 2019