Under practical aspect, applicable to the scenario method as well, heuristics is:
- a class of methods and rules directing the human subject (in our previously
mentioned case the planning analyst and decision maker) towards the most
compatible solution with regard to the given situation, and the most
economical solution to achieve the goals; - a way of solving complex problems without oversimplification
(www.actrus.ro/biblioteca/cursuri/management/stanciutele/a2.pdf).
From a temporal perspective, scenarios can be longitudinal or transversal.
Longitudinal scenarios describe the development of the phenomenon, from the present
into the future. They try to seize a dynamic image (the movie) of the possible unfolding
of the action, its evolution, the branching of chances, expectations. The structure is tree-
like, with the possible alternatives leading to solving the situation.
Transversal scenarios seize the way reality is apparent at a certain time (e.g. by
analysing transversally a situation common for certain categories of population or at the
end of development cycles of phenomena or processes). They give the static image
(photography) of the phenomenon or process in a key moment of its evolution in the form
of spatial structures.
The stages of developing a scenario
In elaborating a scenario there are standard stages. Within each stage there are various
steps according to the type and complexity of the scenario.
First stage: outlining the morphology of the system (by knowing the limits and influences
of the external environment). Any scenario starts from the current state of the system (t 0 )
and sets a time interval for analysis (tn). In order to investigate the transformation in this
time period, we can choose several types of scenarios (normative, exploratory, tendency-
based, contrastive, etc.). In addition, it is customary to express the desirability of the
current state of the system as a value option for defining the evolution up to tn.
Second stage: Defining endogenous and exogenous variables influencing the dynamics of
the system under analysis.
Third sage: Elaborating the premises of the analysed model on the basis of hypotheses
through which one can define how to reach a future state of the system, expressed in
terms of value judgements regarding the desirability and normative principles.
Fourth stage: Elaborating the model for system evolution in time. In the construction of
the model there can occur restrictions pertaining to the formal validity of the relations
between components, avoiding errors of various approximations (phenomenological
trends or extrapolations).