Staying alive in the land of the giantstors who, one hopes, will stay in place. Measuring the health of a
publisher can be trickier, but for seasoned agents it is not hard to
notice when changes are coming.
In the science fiction field, we have been fortunate to have a core
of editors that has remained in place for nearly ten years, but as I
write, a new shuffling of the deck is underway. I do not know how far
it will go, but I know the players and the jobs that are open, and I
can at least make some educated guesses.
As for publishers, it can pay to be an industry observer. Start-up
publishers have a high attrition rate. Hardcover-only houses are a
dying breed. Certain big media conglomerates are built on shakier
foundations than others; for them, the necessity of divestitures will
come sooner or later.
Keep your eyes open. You are sure to stumble if you walk around
in the dark.ESCAPE FROM THE LAND OF THE GIANTS
Probably you are wondering if there is any foolproof way to avoid
getting trampled.
Is selling to small presses the answer? It can be. Lots of agents
are singing the praises of small presses these days. The problem
with small presses is that they can be as volatile as conglomerates.
They can have cash-flow problems, too. Few small presses have any
mass-market paperback clout, either, and that is a negative. Career
novelists grow most in paperback.
One helpful thing to remember is that the situation may not be
as bad as it seems. Just because you hear rumbling does not mean
that you are standing on top of a publishing fault line.
Take Simon & Schuster's $140 million pretax write-off in 1990. If
you had been reading the business section you would have known
that S & S's then corporate parent, Paramount, had sold a large
financial services subsidiary to Ford in 1989. The huge cash pay-
ment this generated was due for a giant tax hit, unless offset by a
big loss. Hence the write-off.
Likewise, Alberto Vitale's arrival at Random House: many feared
a bloodbath, but most Random House divisions were running a
healthy profit. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it," goes the saying, and that