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Testing Theory to Explain and Solve the Head Start Fade (The Fade Phenomenon) 289

occur from first to second grade. To determine if a Fade was occurring from second to third

grade, a Wilcoxon signed-ranks test for the students from grades two and three (See Table 3).

Table 3. Wilcoxon Signed- Ranks Test: Metropolitan 8 Reading Achievement

Tests—Second to Third Grade Comparisons.

ng Tests N 1 st > 2nd 1 st = 2nd 1 st < 2nd Z Value Sig

Total 12 0 12 0 -3.06 .002

Sounds & Print 12 1 11 0 -2.59 .010

Vocabulary 12 1 11 0 -2.90 .004

Comprehension 12 1 11 0 -2.98 .003

Results indicated that 12 students with reading scores from second to third grade showed

significant improvement in total reading scores, Z = 3.06, p = .002. Eleven students improved

in sounds and print, Z = -2.59, p < .010, in vocabulary, Z = -2.90, p =.004, and in

comprehension, Z = -2.98, p = .003. Based on these findings, it appears that Head Start

students who had been in full-day small-class kindergarten and in small classes in first,

second, and third grades (Group I) and meeting the conditions for Group I in the theory, were

not exhibiting Head Start Fade at the end of third grade.

Study results support an administratively mutable organization change in early schooling

to moderate or remove the Head Start Fade. Results also suggest a) the need to assure that

sufficient required data are available in grades 3 and 4 to track student Pre-K and grade 3 or 4

schooling conditions required in the theory, and b) that an appropriate comparison group not

meeting the required conditions is available. Following a successful large retrospective test of

the theory, a randomized field trial would be a logical next step.

Some Concluding Comments/What We Learned

This preliminary test of theory was delimited to a small group of students who had

longitudinal data and could be tracked for their Head Start and K-3 class conditions.

Limitations included a small sample, no control over student assignments, no control over

teacher assignments, and no true control group.

The research blended data and theory a) to explain the Head Start Fade, b) to suggest a

solution, and 3) to provide a pilot test of the theory. The outcomes were promising, but the

theory requires additional refinements. Future research must have larger samples and better

controls than were available for the present study. Class-size research addressed Bloom’s

(1984) two sigma problem. Combining class-size research with information from successful

early childhood programs and supporting theories may offer a solution to the Head Start Fade

phenomenon, and provide directions for effective pre-K through grades 3 and 4 education.

Education is cumulative and requires a strong foundation for long-term success.