Sustainability and National Security

* SERENGETI is not a monitoring or early warning system;

however, it can be used as an early warning system because its

data collection and management function provides much of the

needed data and infrastructure.

Table 3. Select Conflict, Instability, and Fragility

Monitoring and Early Warning Systems^4

Natural Resources and Fragility

The U.S. Army, USAID, and other USG agencies

recently increased focus on the intersection of fragili-

ty and natural resource sectors and their interrelation-

ships. Practitioners are increasingly concerned about

4. Per Joint Publication 3-0, Phase 0 is to shape operations,
   Phase I is to deter, Phase II is to seize the initiative, Phase III is to
   dominate, Phase IV is to stabilize, and Phase V is to enable civil
   authority.

Capability Name Organization Focus Op Phase

Applicability

Natural Resources

Global Model for
Forecasting Political
Instability

PITF Instability Phase O-I No

Forecast and
Analysis of Complex
Threats (FACT) III

U.S. Army Center for

Army Analysis (CAA)

Instability Phase O-I No

Integrated Crisis
Early Warning
System (ICEWS)

DARPA Instability Phase O-I No

Instability and Fragil-
ity Alert Lists

USAID Instability and

Fragility

Phase O-V No

State Fragility Index Center for Systemic
Peace

Fragility Phase O-V No

Environmental Indi-
vations and Warning
(EIW)

U.S. Intelligence

Community

Natural Security Phase O Yes

USACE Measuring
Progress in Conflict
Environmnets
(MPICE)

USACE COIN Progress

Monitoring

Phase III-V Potentially

Climate Change
and African Political
Stability (CCAPS)

University of

Texas, Austin (DOD

Minerva)

Natural Security/

Climate Change

Phase O Yes

SERENGETI* USAFRICOM Human Terrain
Geospatial System

Phase O-V Potentially