ter financed and politically stronger. Russian power
elites have shown no interest in embracing sustain-
ability as a national policy principle, and environmen-
tal protection is not a significant public issue for the
regime. But the future of sustainable policies in each
of these states has very important implications for the
other, and for global political alignments.
Global warming is bringing additional ecological
challenges. Looking out to 2030, a panel of Russian ex-
perts judged that national burdens of climate change,
on top of serious deterioration of its physical and hu-
man capital, will pose substantial planning, prioritiza-
tion and implementation challenges for sustainability
(NIC 2009). The growing effects of climate change
will leave many areas vulnerable to irreversible dam-
age and undermine Russia’s valuable natural resource
base. Such catastrophic developments would likely
have global consequences, including reduced forest-
lands and wilderness areas, which act as a cleansing
sink for global pollution. The energy markets upon
which European nations rely could be disrupted. Po-
litical or social instability, particularly rebellion in the
Caucasus, would be more difficult to contain, with re-
percussions spilling over into Western Europe.
If environmental insecurity undermines Russia’s
ability to exercise global and regional power, it will
surely affect China’s ambitions and Russia’s ability to
provide a counterweight to Chinese expansion. Rus-
sia would be less able to pursue what it perceives to
be its resource rights in the Arctic, and China would
likely have a much larger presence in that part of the
world. Russia provides an important balance to con-
tain China’s expansion in Asia as well. A weakened
Russia, particularly Russia with a dwindling and un-
healthy population, would suffer severe shortages in
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