The environment as a policy problem◗ Complexity and uncertainty
Policymaking may be hampered by the complexity and uncertainty that
characterise many environmental problems. It is often difficult to identify
the complex and interdependent relationships between natural and human-
made phenomena. The interconnectedness of ecosystems means that many
problems are non-reducible: they cannot be resolved by addressing individ-
ual parts in isolation. Indeed, policies that deal with one discrete problem
may have unintended and damaging consequences elsewhere. For example,
in the 1950s local air pollution in Britain’s industrial towns was reduced
by building taller factory chimneys, only for it to be discovered many years
later that this ‘solution’ had simply exported the pollution to fall as acid
rain in Scandinavia. Similarly, cars can be fitted with catalytic converters to
reduce the nitrogen oxide emissions that cause acid rain, but the resulting
reduction in engine efficiency increases fuel consumption and, therefore,
thecarbon dioxide emissions that contribute to global warming.
Political constraints also contribute to the non-reducibility of problems.
Thus solutions to the many environmental problems associated with mod-
ern farming practices (including soil erosion, river pollution, destruction of
Genetically modified organisms:New
organisms created by human manipulation
of genetic information and material.habitats) need to take account of broader public
policies, such as national food production strate-
gies, the rules governing international trade or,
in EU member states, the price supports provided
bytheCommon Agricultural Policy. Similarly, any government wishing to
bangenetically modifiedcrops may be stopped by World Trade Organisation
rules that insist on free trade (see Chapter 10 ).
Uncertainty surrounds many environmental problems. For example, is the
climate changing? If it is, is this due to natural phenomena or to human
activity? If the latter, what will be its impact and how quickly will its effects
be noticed? Will planting new forests mitigate climate change by lock-
ing up carbon dioxide or exacerbate it by increasing methane emissions?
Climate change may be an extreme case, but it is not exceptional. Are
localised leukaemia clusters linked to emissions from nuclear power stations
or caused by a virus? Are genetically modified organisms (GMOs) dangerous
tohuman health or natural habitats? (See Box7. 2.)
Complexity and uncertainty underline the importance of science, scien-
tists and professional expertise in environmental policymaking. Problems
such as climate change and ozone depletion cannot even be identified with-
out science. Some environmental degradation is reasonably visible, such
as fumes from road traffic, or relatively easy to detect, such as falling fish
stocks, but scientific knowledge is needed to make an accurate assessment of
thenature of either problem. What is a safe level of lead in the atmosphere?
What is a sustainable fish catch? Yet science frequently struggles to fulfil
its role as objective arbiter among policy options. The scientific knowledge
informing our understanding of environmental problems is often based on