The environment as a policy problem(see Box3.8), with ecocentrics opting for caution and technocentrics being
more likely to assume optimistically that things will pan out satisfactorily.
Moreover, in liberal democracies such dilemmas open decisions to political
conflict by providing ammunition for both proponents and opponents of
remedial action, which further complicates and politicises the decision-
making process.
◗ Irreversibility
The problem of uncertainty is exacerbated by the irreversibility of many envi-
ronmental problems. Once the Earth’s carrying capacity is exceeded, then
environmental assets may be damaged beyond repair. Scarce resources may
be exhausted and species may become extinct. Some environmental assets
are substitutable, although rarely is the process straightforward or costless.
Technological advances may eventually enable solar energy and wind power
completely to replace depleted fossil fuels as generators of energy, but prob-
ably only if there is also a massive overall reduction in energy consumption.
Irreversibility places even greater pressure on policymakers to get it right,
for unlike fiscal or welfare policy, where a poorly judged tax rate or bene-
fit payment can be corrected in the following year’s budget, it may not be
possible to correct an earlier mistake.
◗ Temporal and spatial variability
Many environmental issues are complicated by the fact that their impact
will be long-term, probably affecting future rather than present generations,
whereas remedial policies need to be adopted before the full negative effects
of a problem are felt. Indeed, there are serious pragmatic constraints on
policymakers wishing to respond to the ethical concerns for future genera-
tions discussed in PartI.Although action to protect future generations may
be needed now, politicians tend to have short-term concerns – tomorrow’s
papers, forthcoming opinion polls or the next election – and they know
how difficult it is to persuade people to accept self-sacrifice today in order
to protect those who are not yet born. In short, it is easier to make policy
that responds to today’s political pressures than addresses tomorrow’s envi-
ronmental problems.
Similarly, there are huge variations in the spatial impact of environmen-
tal problems. The depletion of Himalayan forests results in flooding down-
stream in Bangladesh. Rising sea-levels caused by global warming will cause
most damage to low-lying lands such as Egypt and the Maldives. Sulphur
dioxide emissions generated by British factories fall as acid rain in Scandi-
navia.
Spatial and temporal variability mean that the costs of environmental
problems, and their solutions, are unevenly distributed. Inevitably, envi-
ronmental policies will produce winners and losers. The challenge for