ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY
Table 9.3 Climate change – key developments1970s Growing scientific concern about impact of human activities on climate expressed at series
of international conferences.
1979 First World Climate Conference – agreed that human activities had increased levels of CO 2
and that more CO 2 may contribute to global warming, which could have damaging
consequences.
1985 Villach Conference – scientific consensus that increased CO 2 was linked to global warming.
1988 Toronto Conference – recommended 20 per cent cut in carbon emissions by 2005. IPCC
established.
1990 Preliminary IPCC report and Second World Climate Conference confirmed scientific
consensus and called for policy response.
1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change signed by over 150 nations at Rio Summit.
1995 Berlin Mandate (COP-1) – agreed timetable to negotiate stronger commitments.
IPCC Second Report: scientific consensus strengthened.
1997 Kyoto Protocol (COP-3) – agreed legally binding targets and timetables for developed
countries.
2000 Collapse of COP-6 talks at The Hague, primarily due to intransigence of a small group of
industrialised nations led by USA. Key disagreement over how to treat carbon sinks for
the purpose of measuring carbon emissions.
2001 IPCC Third Assessment report presented ‘new and stronger evidence that most of the
observed warming of the last 50 years is attributable to human activities’. Binding
agreement at Bonn on implementing Kyoto targets – excluding USA. Confirmed in
Marrakesh Accords (COP-7).
2004 Russia finally ratifies Kyoto Protocol.
2005 Kyoto Protocol came into force. COP-11 at Montreal agreed to fund Clean Development
Mechanism, launched Joint Implementation and established a compliance regime.
Initiated post-Kyoto dialogue.
See IPCC (http://www.ipcc.ch/), IISD (http://www.iisd.ca/process/climateatm.htm) and the UN
(http://unfccc.int/2860.php) for developments in climate change negotiations.
effects, partly because most are located in tropical and sub-tropical zones,
but also because their weak infrastructures limit their capability to adapt
to these changes.
The scientific consensus emerged slowly during the 1980s and 1990s (see
Table9.3). The World Climate Programme conference at Villach, Austria,
in 1985 produced the confident scientific conclusion that increased carbon
dioxide concentrations would lead to a significant rise in mean surface tem-
peratures (Paterson 1996 : 29). Over the next five years this scientific consen-
sus rapidly strengthened as the quality of the data and the climate models
improved. The scientific community also started to reach out to the wider
political world. The 1988 Toronto Conference, attended by leading scientists
and policymakers from many countries, recommended a 20 per cent reduc-
tion in CO 2 emissions by 2005 (Paterson 1996 : 34). Toronto prompted a host