The Economist March 12th 2022 Business 53T
wo yearsago this month the era of
remote working abruptly began. As
the first wave of covid19 cases prompted
lockdowns in the West, whitecollar
workers had to get used to new ways of
conducting themselves. Unmuting was
not yet a reflex movement, Zoom fatigue
not yet a common affliction.
Now another era is getting under way.
Unless a new variant of the virus again
intervenes, more and more workers will
go to the office for at least a portion of
their working week. Guidance to work
from home was lifted in Britain in Janu
ary. American Express expects to see
people back in its offices in America
from March 15th; employees of Citigroup,
Google and Apple have been given return
dates of March 21st, April 4th and April
11th, respectively.
Another period of adjustment is
unfolding, and not just to the novel
demands of hybrid work (see article on
next page). People also have to get used
to the physical reality of once again being
surrounded by threedimensional col
leagues—people who gaze, chatter, slurp,
wheeze, clatter, rustle and fidget.
Some readjustments are clear: wear
ing trousers is a requirement, not a
lifestyle choice. Others are less obvious.
Making eye contact with someone else’s
actual eyes is a skill that needs to be
relearned as the office fills up again. Too
little, and you come across as unin
terested. Too much, and you seem un
comfortably intense. A study in 2016
found that three seconds of mutual eye
contact was about right for the average
person (just don’t count out loud).
Small talk is another lost skill. You do
not have to politely nod and smile at
people when working from home. Ask
ing after the family is just weird when
you are speaking to your spouse andchildren. By contrast, a crowded office
demands endless casual pleasantries,
whether bumping into someone in the
corridor and clustering at the coffee mach
ine or holding doors open and waiting for
the lift. There is a payoff to platitudes:
researchers from Rutgers University and
the University of Exeter found in 2020 that
small talk enhanced workers’ sense of
wellbeing and connectedness. But chat
ting about nothing requires practice, even
for extroverts.
Meetings are entirely different in the
offline world, in good ways and bad. The
good includes greater spontaneity and the
fact that no one freezes midspeech, their
face contorted into a hideous rictus. The
bad is that many habits developed at home
must quickly be unlearned upon return
ing to the office.
You cannot openly do other work:
tapping away on a laptop while someone
drones on is perfectly acceptable on Zoom,
but not in the same room. You cannot
magically disguise yourself from view by
turning off a camera. Any eyerolling you
do will be seen; headbanging the table inexasperation will be noticed.
In theory you could ask all the attend
ees of a reallife meeting to come with
you while you root around in a cupboard
for a biscuit, but it is so much simpler to
go foraging when you are Zooming. You
cannot leave pointless meetings as easily
in the office, either. In the virtual world,
salvation is just a click and an insincere
apologyinthechat away; in the phys
ical world you have to move chairs,
mutter excuses and negotiate the door
handle. Exit, pursued by a stare.
The realities of corporeal colleagues
show up in other ways, too. Take seating.
Rarely do you amble into your own living
room to find Malcolm from marketing
there. In newly crowded offices you will
be competing with him to book a desk;
worse, he may be your neighbour. Heat
ing is another example. Women are more
productive at temperatures warmer than
those men prefer, but they are less likely
to have control of the thermostat in the
office than in their homes.
And this is to say nothing of the un
derlying concerns that drove people to
vacate their offices in the first place—the
infectiousness and virulence of covid19.
Company by company, new norms of
physical interaction will emerge and
change over the coming months. Hand
shake, fistbump or simple “hello”? Masks
on, off or slung under the chin, ready to
be deployed at a moment’s notice? So
cially distanced or just social?
The start of the hybrid era is good
news. It means that the pandemic has
moved into a new and less threatening
phase. Companies can now try to blend
the benefits of inperson interaction
with the flexibility to work remotely that
many employees crave. But the proxim
ity of people will still take time to get
used to again. The return to the office means getting used to the presence of reallife colleaguesBartlebyLet’s get physical
years after the crisis abates. In any case,
leasing firms insist they are insured
against this type of loss. Investors are not
so sure. AerCap’s share price dropped by
nearly a third in the week after the sanc
tions were announced (though they have
rebounded a bit since).
All these problems, though real, pale in
comparison with the woes of Russia’s air
lines. Its vast domestic market, accounting
for 4.5% of global demand, was one of the
most resilient throughout the pandemic.
Last year it exceeded precovid levels. Now
Russian carriers are flying on borrowed
time. Even if the lessors do not reclaim
their aircraft, other sanctions prevent
Western firms from providing parts or
technical support. Twothirds of planes in
Russia come from Airbus and Boeing. The
Sukhoi Superjet, a Russianmade regional
jet, has a Western engine and avionics.
Cannibalising, engineering or acquiring
uncertified spares from dodgy third parties
may work for a while but is unsustainable
in the longer run.
Regular maintenance to accepted inter
national standards may soon become im
possible, too. So will insuring Russianplanes, most of which are covered through
Lloyd’s of London, a marketplace for bro
kers and underwriters. Even booking and
payment systems, mostly outsourced to
Western technology firms, may no longer
function. It is back to “spreadsheets and
pencils”, says Andrew Charlton of Avia
tion Advocacy, another consultancy. In just
a few months Russian airlines could grind
to a halt, says Mr McMullan. Before then
passengers may have to board planes that
have missed maintenance,arefitted with
suspect spares and are uninsured. Many
may opt for the train instead.n