CHILD POVERTY AND INEQUALITY: THE WAY FORWARD

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dataset, the OLS procedure tends to yield inefficient and distorted


estimates of the values of and Baltagi. The estimation procedure


best suited to situations in which ui varies from country to country


is the fixed effects (FE) model in which ui is not treated as a


random variable. This means that the estimation with the fixed


effects model includes, for each of the 18 countries considered, an


intercept which captures specific country effects due to geography,


institutions and unobservables. Besides fixed-country effects, the


estimation procedure has included also year fixed-effects so as to


capture the impact of yearly shocks. The F test of joint significance


confirm at zero probability level that both country and year fixed-


effects are different from zero. This indicates that their exclusion


from the regression would bias the estimates of the other


parameters.


The results of the regression analysis are presented in Table 13 in a


basic model (column 1) and in two subsequent models where


portfolio inflows/GDP (column 2) and the latter plus the ratio of


the coverage of pensions in the top to the bottom quintile (column



  1. were added. In the basic model, practically all variables have the


sign expected ex-ante on the basis of the received theory reviewed in


section 3. The addition of portfolio flows and pension has a


minimal effect on the value of the parameters of model 1.


We turn now to the impact of the five sets of variables discussed


before the regression. (i) Initial conditions: in the fixed effects


approach, the time-invariant Gini income 1990 is absorbed in the


country-specific constant term (but its effect is strong, in contrast,


when using the OLS or random effect estimators, not shown here


for reasons of space). (ii) The growth rate of GDP/c (which


measures the impact of the business cycle) has a strong effect on


inequality, falling by a quarter of a Gini point for every one percent


in GDP/c growth. The recovery of 2003-07 appears therefore to


have had an important equalizing effect. (iii) The Gini of the


distribution of the years of education among members of the labor


force (delayed one year) is, as expected, strongly significant,


suggesting that improved access to secondary education had an


important, if slow-moving, effect on the decline of income


inequality.

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