It’s time to stop all this
changing of the clocks
Ann Treneman
Page 28
revanchism. In Asia, balancing China
would become much easier if the
world’s third largest economy, Japan,
reconsidered its self-imposed limit
on defence spending. In the last ten
years, Tokyo has increased its
military budget to just over 1 per cent
of GDP. Yet, the $52 billion is
dwarfed by the $252 billion China is
estimated to be spending.
Germany’s decision was welcomed
by its neighbours, which is thegreatest compliment one can pay to
how the country has confronted its
wartime past. Japan rearming would
be more complicated: South Korea
still regularly objects to how Japanese
textbooks portray the histories of the
two countries. But it is hard to see
how China can be countered in the
Indo-Pacific in the coming decades
unless Japan develops a more robust
military presence.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the
West has got many things right. Yet,
there is no doubt that western
mistakes over the past few years, and
splits in the weeks and months
beforehand, made Putin think he
could get away with his invasion. The
West cannot afford to repeat these
with Taiwan.James Forsyth is political editor of
The SpectatorHow we can save Taiwan from Ukraine’s fate
China might think twice about an invasion or blockade if we start sending weapons and lay out a clear sanctions plan
MOD CROWN COPYRIGHT
islands neighbouring Taiwan now.
Doing so when tensions are even
higher, or the Chinese are already
heading towards Taiwan, would be
far more difficult, and could be seen
as an offensive, rather than
defensive, move.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a
slew of European nations have
announced plans to increase
spending on defence. The most
dramatic is Germany’s plan to spend
2 per cent of its GDP on defence by- Berlin has this week
announced it intends to buy
American F-35s, which could be used
to deliver US nuclear weapons if
there was a war on the continent.
The decision of Europe’s largest
economy to start spending seriously
on defence has significantly improved
the security of the continent. In time,
it will play a significant role in
deterring Russia from further
Starstreak anti-aircraft weapons are
being supplied by Britain to Ukraineworking out how it would sanction
China if necessary: the threat of such
action might be the best way to deter
Beijing from attacking Taiwan.
Another lesson would be to step
up the delivery of weaponry to
Taiwan. Almost two dozen countries
are now sending lethal aid to
Ukraine, but before the war started
only a handful, led by the US and
Britain, were doing so. As one
British government source points
out, the deliveries of anti-tank
missiles are one of the reasons why,
four weeks in, the Russians have
made so little progress.
Even countries supplying Kyiv
before the Russian attack are now
sending more advanced weapons.
The UK is providing Starstreak
anti-aircraft missiles and the US
announced on Wednesday it is
sending another $800 million of
military aid, including Switchblade
drones which can destroy tanks at a
range of 25 miles. But imagine how
the Russian offensive might have
gone if Ukraine had been supplied
with all this weaponry before the
fighting started.
The Russian missile strike close to
the Polish border at the weekend was
designed to deter Nato from
funnelling supplies into Ukraine.
There is an obvious escalatory risk if
the Russians, in seeking to disrupt
these supply lines, strike inside the
alliance’s territory. It is also much
harder to get weapons in once a
conflict has started. So start sending
Taiwan what it would need to
defend itself now, rather than waiting
for the invasion fleet to appear on
the horizon.
There is also a strong case for the
US positioning troops to preserve its
options if China does attempt to use
force. As the American strategist Hal
Brands has argued, it would be better
to move US forces to the JapaneseO
ne reason the free world’s
response to the Russian
invasion of Ukraine has
been so unified is that
everyone knows another
world power is also itching to redraw
the world map. China is watching.
Will the West let things gradually
drift back to normal, as happened
after Vladimir Putin’s 2014
annexation of Crimea? Or does it
arm the attacked country to the
teeth and inflict agonising, lasting
sanctions on the aggressor?
If Russia had paid only a small
price for its assault, a Chinese
attempt to take Taiwan by force
would have become significantly
more likely. As it is, the international
opprobrium to hit Moscow and the
pounding it is taking from Ukraine’s
military may well change the
calculus in Beijing. But more can be
done to safeguard Taiwan. The West
must note its mistakes in Ukraine
and apply the lessons in advance.
At the start of last month, Putin
was confident he could withstand
whatever sanctions were imposed on
him. Russia had, after all, increased
its foreign country reserves to
$630 billion, a 75 per cent rise since
- These reserves were akin to a
third of the Russian economy. But
the central bank sanctions, which he
didn’t see coming and which had not
been flagged up by the G7 in
advance, have put at least half this
war chest beyond use.
The coalition that has imposed
sanctions on Russia should make
clear the same awaits China if it
attempts to blockade or take Taiwan.
As one cabinet China hawk says, the
measures are “a good playbook for
what is possible” and show how you
can turn a country into “a total
pariah”. Yet if sanctions are to work
as a deterrent, they must be clearly
communicated ahead of time. Had
Putin known the economic pressure
the West would put his rule under,
he may have thought twice before
invading Ukraine.
The obvious flaw inA the current
package is that it doesn’t (yet) apply
to Moscow’s energy exports; it has
been designed so Europe can keep
buying Russian oil and gas. If the
West had built up alternative sources
of supplies, it would have been able
to rachet up the pressure on the
Kremlin by several notches.
This makes the case for reducing
our dependence on China now, so
the West has the freest hand if it
comes to imposing economicmeasures on Beijing. Australia’s plan
to mine more of the critical minerals
used in electronics, a market China
dominates, is sensible. As is EU and
US co-operation on electric car
batteries. But there is also an urgent
need for G7 co-ordination to ensure
alternative sources of supplies for
things such as medicines.
Cutting Russia out of the world
economy is painful; it will push up
energy and food bills for British
households. Doing so to China,
whose economy is six times larger,
would hurt even more, especially as
it is far more integrated into global
supply chains. So the G7 must startA slew of European
nations are increasing
spending on defence
Countering Beijing will
require Japan to step
up its military presence
Comment
James
Forsythred box
For the best analysis
and commentary on
the political landscape
thetimes.co.uk@jgforsyth
the times | Friday March 18 2022 27