The Economist - UK (2022-03-19)

Melitopol Mariupol

Mykolaiv

Belgorod

Odessa Kherson

Dnipro

KryvyiRih

Chernihiv Konotop

Sumy

Okhtyrka

Lviv Kharkiv Novopskov

Yavoriv

Warsaw

Kyiv

Chisinau

Black

Sea

Seaof

Azov

UKRAINE

BELARUS

P OLAND

SLOVAKIA

MOLDOVA

RUSSIA

Crimea

Do

nba

s

Controlled

byRussian-

backed

separatists

Ukrainianterritory

annexedbyRussia

Luhansk

Donetsk

150 km

ClaimedRussian-controlled

AssessedRussianadvances*

AssessedRussian-controlled

Russianunitmovements

ClaimedUkrainiancounteroffensives

March th

*Russiaoperatedinorattacked,

butdoesnotcontrol

Sources:InstitutefortheStudyofWar;

RochanConsulting;TheEconomist

Dneiper

The third week of war: The military situation The Mariupol massacre

RussiahitthewestofUkraineforthefirst

timewitha missilestrikeona basenear

Yavoriv.Elsewhereitcontinuedtoshell

citieswithouttakingthem.Butadvances

fromthesouthandeastmightletitcutoff

Ukrainianregularforcesintheeast.

Mariupol, a besieged port city of 400,

people, has been under constant

bombardment. On March 14th Ukraine’s

government said that 2,500 people had

died. Some sources put the death toll as

high as 10,000.

Proven tank losses, to March 16th 2022

Ukraine

Russia Dest royed Captur ed Abandoned

   Damaged

16 Briefing The war in Ukraine The Economist March 19th 2022

killed a chicken,” says Vladislav, a 52­year­

old  electrician  who  was  watching  televi­

sion  when  missiles  hit  the  district  in

which he lives on March 14th. “But now I’d

kill  that  Putin  bastard.”  Ukrainian  control

over corridors to the south of the city keep

it  connected  to  the  rest  of  country,  and

thus the world—witness the visit there by

the  Czech,  Polish  and  Slovenian  prime

ministers on March 15th.

Such connections are not just symbolic.

They can bring supplies. Perhaps Ukraine’s

second­biggest  advantage  is  that  Western

arms are still pouring into the country. On

March 15th the Joint Expeditionary Force, a

British­led  ten­nation  bloc  of  northern

European  states,  agreed  to  “co­ordinate,

fund and supply” more weaponry (see Brit­

ain  section).  On  March  16th  America  an­

nounced  $800m  in  new  security  assis­

tance  to  Ukraine.  The  package  includes

800  Stinger  anti­aircraft  systems  and

2,000  Javelin  anti­tank  missiles.  It  also

contains 100 unspecified drones which are

thought to be Switchblades, loitering mu­

nitions  that  can  strike  tanks  from  up  to

40km  away.  On  a  forthcoming  trip  to  Slo­

vakia  and  Bulgaria,  Lloyd  Austin,  Ameri­

ca’s  defence  secretary,  is  expected  to  ask

both allies to provide Ukraine with longer­

range  Russian­made  air­defence  systems

from their arsenals, such as the s-300. 

The only thing which may be more im­

portant  to  Ukraine’s  defence  than  these

supplies  is  the  morale  they  help  keep  up.

Ukrainian  troops  are  defiant,  confident

and  buoyed—not  to  say  surprised—by

their  success  not  just  in  holding  out  for

three  weeks  when  many  Western  experts

thought the war would be over in days, but

in imposing serious losses on enemy forc­

es which have, in some places, come close

to a standstill. 

There ain’t no easy way out

Russian forces advancing north out of Cri­

mea  have,  by  and  large,  made  more  pro­

gress than those coming south from Bela­

rus  and  Russia.  But  there,  too,  some  as­

saults  have  become  bogged  down.  In  the

south­west,  Russian  forces  appear  to  be

stuck at Mykolaiv, a port which guards the

road  to  Odessa.  They  have  been  unable  to

assault it, capture it from the sea or bypass

it. Their response, as is often the case with

Russia’s army, has been to shell it. Rockets

have  landed  in  the  city’s  zoo  on  at  least

three  occasions.  The  tail  of  one  Smerch

rocket  is  stuck  inside  the  bird  enclosure;

the peacocks have not been the same since,

say  staff.  “After  three  weeks  of  this  idiot’s

genocidal  war,”  says  a  deputy  zookeeper,

“It really would be the icing on the cake; to

see lions, tigers and leopards free to roam.”

But  Russia’s  military  dysfunction  and

Ukraine’s  thumping  victory  in  the  infor­

mation war may have obscured some of the

country’s  vulnerabilities,  especially  those

which  are  some  way  away  from  the  be­

sieged, battered but defiant cities. Stymied

though  Russia  may  be  at  Mykolaiv,  it  has

been advancing quite quickly towards Kry­

vyi  Rih,  a  city  around  150km  (90  miles)  to

the north­east. If that manoeuvre pans out,

it would weaken Ukraine’s hold on Dnipro,

a  larger  city  which  controls  vital  crossing

points over the Dnieper river.

Should  Russian  forces  also  manage  to

break  out  past  Kharkiv  and  move  south,  a

pincer  movement  formed  by  the  two  ad­

vances  could  isolate  the  Ukrainian  forces

facing the Russian separatists in the east of

the  country.  The  Ukrainian  forces  in  this

area, known as the Joint Forces Operation,

are thought to comprise a sizeable fraction

of  the  regular  army.  In  a  letter  sent  to  his

officers  on  March  9th,  General  Thierry

Burkhard,  France’s  chief  of  defence  staff,

warned that Ukraine, “faced with the diffi­

culty of holding a stretched position, with­

out any operational reserve, could experi­

ence  a  sudden  collapse”.  In  the  long  run,

losing  its  army  in  the  field  would  bode  ill

for Ukraine’s chances.

Perhaps  mindful  of  their  respective

weaknesses and losses—the civilian toll in

Ukraine has been hard, especially in Mari­

upol—Russia and Ukraine seem to have be­

come  more  seriously  engaged  in  negotia­

tions that could bring about a ceasefire or

end  the  war.  Mr  Zelensky,  who  in  recent

days has acknowledged that Ukraine “will

not enter” nato, insisted that the Russians

were sounding “more realistic” about a set­

tlement.  Russia’s  foreign  minister,  Sergei

Lavrov,  said  on  March  16th  that  the  two

sides  were  “close  to  agreeing”  a  deal  that

would involve a neutral Ukraine receiving

guarantees  about  its  security.  That  said,

Jean­Yves Le Drian, France’s foreign minis­

ter, has been quoted as saying the Russians