The Economist - UK (2022-03-19)

(Antfer) #1
The Economist March 19th 2022 21
Britain

TheJointExpeditionaryForce

NATO-lite


O


n the nightof March 14th, while Rus­
sian  forces  were  pounding  Ukrainian
cities,  six  leaders  and  other  representa­
tives of the Joint Expeditionary Force (jef),
a  British­led  coalition  of  ten  northern
European  countries,  gathered  for  the  first
time  at  Chequers,  the  country  house  of
Britain’s  prime  minister.  They  put  their
phones away for security, sat down to din­
ner and set to work. “We agreed that Putin
must  not  succeed  in  this  venture,”  Boris
Johnson  told  The Economistthe  next  day.
They  agreed  to  “co­ordinate,  supply  and
fund” more arms and other equipment re­
quested by Ukraine. And they declared that
jef,  through  exercises  and  “forward  de­
fence”, would seek to deter further Russian
aggression—including  provocations  out­
side Ukraine that might stymie nato or fall
under its threshold.
jef,  largely  unknown  outside  defence
circles,  was  established  a  decade  ago  as  a
high­readiness  force  focused  on  the  High
North,  North  Atlantic  and  Baltic  Sea  re­

gions  (see  map  on  next  page  for  its  mem­
bers). Unlike nato, it does not need inter­
nal consensus to deploy troops in a crisis:
Britain,  the  “framework”  nation,  could
launch  operations  with  one  or  more  part­
ners. As one British officer puts it: “The jef
can act while nato is thinking.”
That makes it especially useful in mur­
ky  circumstances.  “It’s  there  to  respond
flexibly to all sorts of contingencies, may­
be [those] that fall short of an Article Five
threshold,”  says  Mr  Johnson,  referring  to
nato’s collective­defence clause. jef mat­
ters  because,  although  Article  Five  covers
“armed attack”, it is unclear whether lower­
level  or  ambiguous  provocations,  such  as
the unmarked Russian soldiers who seized
Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, would meet
the  threshold.  jef is  therefore  a  “valuable
complement” to nato, says Martin Hurt of
icds,  a  defence  think­tank  in  Estonia.  In
the case of an attack in northern Europe, he
says,  jef,  alongside  American  forces,  has
the potential to become a first responder.

jef has also become an important dip­
lomatic  and  military  instrument  in  re­
sponding  to  Russia’s  war  in  Ukraine.  Brit­
ish officials say that only a few weeks ago a
London  summit  built  around  the  force
would  have  been  unthinkable.  jef “con­
sists  of  the  countries  that  were  fastest  off
the blocks, with us, in sending direct mili­
tary  assistance  to  Ukraine,”  Mr  Johnson
points  out.  Nine  out  of  ten  members  are
now  supplying  weapons  (Iceland,  which
lacks  a  standing  army,  is  the  exception).
“What  we  agreed  today  was  to  make  sure
that  we're  not  all  supplying  the  same
thing,” says Mr Johnson.

All for one
jef’s  growing  prominence  reflects  wider
trends in European security. Instead of re­
lying on nato, countries are hedging their
bets and diversifying with a dizzying array
of  coalitions,  blocs  and  groupings,  from
the French­led European Intervention Ini­
tiative to the European Union’s Permanent
Structured Co­operation, or pesco. In Sep­
tember  France  signed  a  defence  pact  with
Greece. Britain, Poland and Ukraine agreed
on  a  trilateral  security  pact  in  February.
jef’s composition is noteworthy because it
includes three countries that are members
of nato but not the eu (Britain, Iceland and
Norway) and two that are members of the
eu but not nato (Finland and Sweden).
For  Europeans,  much  of  this  is  about

K YIV AND LONDON
Boris Johnson tells The Economistabout the ten-country coalition against Russia

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