The Economist - UK (2022-03-19)

28 Europe TheEconomistMarch19th 2022

Nanni, parliamentary spokeswoman on

securityfortheGreens,whogovernwith

MrScholz’sSocialDemocrats(spd).

Yet itwas thespecificcommitments

that set Mr Scholz’s speech apart. This

markeda sharpcontrastwithAngelaMer­

kel,hispredecessor,whoseeloquentgeo­

politicalorationstypicallystoppedshort

ofpolicyprescriptions.MrScholzevident­

lyaimstoentrenchhisZeitenwendeinGer­

manpoliticalculture.Whetherhecando

sodependsonthreethings:successfully

implementinghisplans;embeddingthem

ina broaderstrategicphilosophy;andsus­

tainingsupportamongGermanvoters.

Startwithimplementation.Aftera long

declineGermany’smilitarybudgetstarted

climbingafterRussia’sfirstbiteatUkraine

in 2014 (seechart1).Buta sprawlingbu­

reaucracyandhighspendingonrunning

costslikebuildingsandpensionshaveleft

the Bundeswehr with under­equipped

troopsandhelicoptersunabletotakeoff.

OnthedayMrPutinrolledhistanksinto

Ukraine,theheadofGermany’sarmyde­

claredonLinkedInthattheBundeswehr

hadbeenleft“moreorlessbare”.

Howtospendit?

A priorityistofillgapsinammunitionand

spareparts.Justreplenishingstockpilesof

suchthingscouldgobbleup€20bn.Ger­

many’slong­suffering troopsneed rifles

thatfireandradiosthatwork.Voters,says

SophiaBeschattheCentreforEuropean

Reform, simply want “a Bundeswehr

they’renotembarrassedabout”.

Beyondthatliesalongshoppinglist.

Someofithasalreadybeentickedoff:on

March14ththegovernmentsaiditwould

buy 35 Americanf­35fighterstoreplaceits

Tornados,and 15 Eurofighterjetstocon­

duct electronic warfare. Germany must

meetnatoobligationsontacticalairde­

fence,infantryandcybercapabilities.Hea­

vy­lifthelicoptersaresorelyneeded.

Bigbudgetsattract lobbyists.German

armsfirmssuchasRheinmetallandHen­

soldt,enjoying surgingshareprices, are

pushingfor early disbursements ofthe

loot;mps withmanufacturersintheircon­

stituenciesspychancesforpork.Thegov­

ernmentmustresistallthis,saysRoderich

Kiesewetter,an mpfromtheopposition

ChristianDemocratsanda formersoldier.

Defencewonkshopefora slowdisburse­

mentofthe€100bnfundtosuitplanning

andlongprocurementcycles.Thefinance

ministry,which wantsto avoidoverbur­

dening the regular defence budget in

reaching the 2% target, will push for

speedier spending, perhaps over four

years.That wouldtesttheBundeswehr’s

absorption capacities, themselves dam­

aged by yearsofneglect. Ifspentbadly

thereisa hugeriskofthemoneyfallingin­

toa “blackhole”,saysChristianMöllingof

theGermanCouncilonForeignRelations.

Norismoneytheonlyproblem.Ger­

many’sdefence­procurementagencyisa

bywordforrisk­aversedysfunction.Inthe

defence ministry lines of authority are

blurred,staffingbloatedanda loveofpetti­

foggingdetailsoentrenchedthatmilitary

plannerssplurgeonbespokehelmetsbe­

cause off­the­shelf ones fasten in the

wrongdirection.(“AsifGermansoldiers’

headsaredifferentfromeveryoneelse’s,”

sighsoneofficial.)Fixingtheseproblems

willfallto ChristineLambrecht,thede­

fenceminister.MsLambrechtisa skilled

administratorandclosetoMrScholz.But

shehadnodefenceexperiencebeforetak­

ingthejoblastDecember,andhasfailedto

impressGermansecurocratssince.

TacklingGermany’senergyneedsis,if

anything,morepressing.Germanyisquit­

tingnuclearpower—thelastthreeplants

willclosethisyear—andaimstostopburn­

ingcoalin2030.Nowit facesthechallenge

of weaning itself off Gazprom, Russia’s

stategasgiant.Russiasuppliesoverhalf

thegasthatheatsGermanhomesandpow­

ers its industry (see chart 2); gas was

namedasa “bridge”fueltoa renewablefu­

tureinthecoalitiondealsignedinNovem­

ber.“Isaythiswithgreatregret:Germanyis

dependent on Russian energy imports,”

saidRobertHabeck,theGreenclimateand

economyminister,recently.

Onechallengeistocopewithdemands

thatGermanygocoldturkeyonimports

fromitsbiggestsupplier.Germansmust

“freezeforfreedom”,criedJoachimGauck,

anex­president.Someeconomistsargue

thatGermanycouldcopewithanimmedi­

atecut­off.Officialswho havecrunched

thenumbersangrilydisagree.A sudden

stop to Russian imports would mean

“movingtoa wareconomy”,saysKirsten

WestphalatH2GlobalFoundation,a lobby

group.ButtheKremlinitselfcouldfollow

throughonthreatstoturnoffthetaps.

Germany is drawing up contingency

planstocopewithsuchasupplyshock,

fromrestartingmothballedcoalplantsto

negotiating fresh lng supplies via Eu­

rope’sexistingterminals.It willlegislateto

ensurehigherlevelsofgasstoragebefore

nextwinter;lastyearGazpromrandown

stocksinthefacilitiesitwasinexplicably

allowedtobuya decadeago.And,shouldit

cometoit,thecountryhasdrawnupa pri­

oritylistfordemandmanagement:indus­

trialconcernswillhavetocutusagefirst,

pensionerslast.“Thenwewillseehowpa­

trioticGermansreallyare,”saysa minister.

Inthemediumterm,helpshouldcome

fromthelngterminalsofficialssaywillbe

constructedat“Tesla­speed”,witha nodto

theGigafactorythatElonMuskhasbuilt

outsideBerlin.Thegovernment’splansto

acceleraterenewables,alreadydauntingly

ambitious,havebecomeyetmoreurgent.

Sohavethoseforthegreenhydrogenthose

lngterminalswilleventuallybeabletore­

ceive.Justasithashadtoaccepta rolefor

themilitaryinitsdiplomacy,Germanyis

quickly learning that securityofsupply

mustbea cornerstoneofenergypolicy.

Beyondequippingitsarmyandguaran­

teeing itsenergysupply, Germanymust

begintoaskwhatitwantsfromitsforeign

and security policy. Money creates op­

tions,andpresumablyGermanydoesnot

simplywanttobecomea largerFranceor

Britainwithoutnukes.Buttheseareunfa­

miliarquestionsforacountrynotyetat

peacewiththetoolsofwar.“TheFrench

havespentmoneyonanarmytheywantto

Foot on the gas

Germany

Gas,bncubicmetres

Sources:ICIS;Destatis *Mainlyresidentialheating †Largelycrudeoil,natural gas and coal

2

Imports from Russia, 2021, €bn

40

30

20

10

0

212019181716152014

Russian

supply

Local

distribution*

Power&

industry

Demand:

35302520151050

Chemicals Other

Manufacturedgoods Other raw materials

Mineral fuels and lubricants†

Arming up

Germany

Source:NATO *Estimate

1

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

21152010

Defencespending

%ofGDP

**

Russiaannexes

Crimea

20

15

10

5

0

21152010

Equipment spending

% of total defence spend

NATO target NATO target

**