30 Europe The Economist March 19th 2022
TheFrenchelectionUnassailable
T
herewasnobassbeattopumpupthe
audience,norbankedrowsofflagwav
ingsupporters.EmmanuelMacron’sfirst
campaigneventsincehedeclaredformally
onMarch3rdthatheisrunningforreelec
tionaspresidentnextmonthwasa low
keyaffair.Ina municipalhall(andformer
vaccinationcentre)inthetownofPoissy,
westofParis,hetookmostlyfriendlyques
tionsfroma modestaudienceofsome 250
people.The first tworaised amatterof
greatconcernduringthiscampaign:Rus
sia’swarinUkraine.
AnxietyaboutthewarhasturnedMr
Macron’s campaign for reelection, at a
tworound vote on April 10th and 24th, in
to what increasingly looks like a foregone
conclusion. By March 15th The Economist’s
forecasting model put his chances of win
ning at 97%. Even as a candidate, he is
spending more time telephoning world
leaders than shaking hands on the cam
paign trail. Rivals are struggling to find the
right tone to criticise his leadership. “He’s
hanging over this campaign at such a
height that it’s very difficult to get at him,”
grumbles a member of a rival team.
Mr Macron certainly knows how to
make the most of this. “Before coming here
I was on the phone with President Biden,”
he dropped casually into the conversation
in Poissy; “tomorrow I will be [on a call]
with President Xi Jinping.” On March 14th a
French television channel organised an
entire evening event with eight of the 12
candidates entitled “France faced with
war”. Most of the aspirants tried hard to
show that they have what it takes to serve
as head of state and the armed forces; Mr
Macron recounted his conversations with
Vladimir Putin.
In some ways, it is unsurprising that
war has strengthened the sitting presi
dent’s hand. Voters are seeking some form
of stability at a time of fear, and Mr Macron
is often at his best in a crisis. The war has
exposed the contradictions of his three
main rivals on the hard left and the hard
right, who have all scrambled to deny or
withdraw past sympathy for Mr Putin. The
mainstream contenders, who have real dif
ferences with Mr Macron on matters such
as taxation or nuclear energy, see little op
tion but to applaud, broadly, his diplomat
ic efforts.
Moreover, Mr Putin’s war has shifted
the debate in Europe in Mr Macron’s direc
tion. The muscular talk about “strategicsovereignty”,andGermany’s decision mas
sively to increase its defence spending, re
inforce what he has been saying for years.
Before he was elected in 2017, Mr Macron
warned that “war and conflict are not be
hind us” in Europe. Shortly after taking of
fice, in a speech at the Sorbonne, he urged
Europe to think in terms of “European
sovereignty”, a phrase that at the time
seemed as abstract as the ambition felt far
fetched. Yet at a summit in Versailles on
March 10th and 11th, eu leaders promised
precisely to build “European sovereignty”:
to take more joint responsibility for de
fence, and work towards greater autonomy
in energy, medicines and food.
Mr Macron’s diplomacy has its critics.
Abroad, especially in eastern Europe, he
was seen as a loose cannon and even as an
appeaser when he first tried to court Mr Pu
tin with talk of a new European security ar
chitecture. Last month, after his shuttle di
plomacy to Moscow failed to prevent the
war, he was regarded by some as naive.
French diplomats had been persuaded
that, in all likelihood, Mr Putin would not
be reckless enough to invade. General
Thierry Burkhard, France’s most senior
soldier, conceded as much to Le Monde.
“The Americans said that the Russians
would attack—they were right,” the general
said. “Our services thought, rather, that the
conquest of Ukraine would have a mon
strous cost and the Russians had other op
tions” to bring down the Ukrainian regime.
Yet, as Célia Belin of the Brookings In
stitution points out, Mr Macron has man
aged to present his dialogue with Mr Putin
as cleareyed statesmanship: that he en
gaged in talks precisely because he had
perceived how serious Russia’s threats
were. “It’s not entirely false,” she says, “and
it’s certainly working for him.” Since De
cember the French president has held calls
with (or met) Mr Putin 16 times, andUkraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky,
24 times. A poll says 59% think Mr Macron
has “risen to the challenge” over the war.
In short, Mr Macron’s efforts are ap
plauded, despite the lack of results. Fully
65% of the French back arms deliveries to
Ukraine, which France is carrying out qui
etly, and 80% support taking in refugees.
At a visit this week to a centre to welcome
those fleeing Ukraine, Mr Macron prom
ised that France would take in at least
100,000. The war has turned the campaign
into a sombre affair. ButMrMacron will
have few complaints if,asseems likely,
that helps him keep his job.nP OISSY
The invasion has darkened the mood,
but entrenched Emmanuel MacronHaving a good warRussiaThe Z factor
T
he e-mailwas anonymous and written
entirely in capitals. “TRAITORS!!! SHUT
UP!! SHUT YOUR UGLY MOUTHS WITH
YOUR LETTERS, YOU PACFICISTS!!! BITCH
ES, PROSTITUTES, BASTARDS. DON’T DIR
TY RUSSIA WITH YOUR PRESENCE, NOBO
DY IS KEEPING YOU HERE!!!” It was part of
the barrage of hate mail sent to Marina Da
vydova, one of Russia’s bestknown theatre
critics and the organiser of a prominent
festival, who on the day that Russia at
tacked Ukraine published an open letter
against the war.
Then on March 4th Ms Davydova found
a giant zpainted on the door of her flat in
Moscow. On the same day, the same letter
appeared on the door of Anton Dolin, a film
critic who had also published a statementRussian propagandists turn on
pro-Western “traitors”