The Economist - UK (2022-03-19)

44 MiddleEast&Africa TheEconomistMarch19th 2022

itsproxiesstageda seriesofattacksinthe

gcc, sabotagingoiltankersnearFujairah,a

uaestatelet,andhittingSaudioilfacilities

withdronesandcruisemissiles.

Thatprompteda policychange.Despite

Americansanctions,Iranhasbeenexport­

ingupto1mbarrelsa dayofoil,mostlyto

China.Someofthisoilisshippedthrough

thirdcountriestohideitsorigin.Theuae

hasbecomea bigpartofthistrade:Bourse

andBazaar,a think­tankinLondon,esti­

matesthatsome$13bnworthofIranian

crudereachedChinaviatheuaeinthefirst

ninemonthsof2021.Muchofthatmoney

isspentonimportedgoodsfromtheuae.

AllofthisranklesAmericanofficials.In

Decembera delegationfromtheusTreasu­

ryflewtoAbuDhabi,thecapitaloftheuae,

tocomplainaboutsanctions­busting.Well

before then, the Trump administration

wasangrywithQatarforunderminingits

“maximum pressure” campaign against

Iran.AfterthreeofitsGulfneighboursim­

poseda blockadeonit in2017,Qatarboost­

edtradewithIran,withimportsclimbing

five­foldto$418mwithina year.

Economicdiplomacyhasitslimits.The

uaehadhopedthattradetieswithIran

wouldhelpshielditfromfurtherattacks.

TahnounbinZayed,theEmirates’power­

fulnational­securityadviser,hasadvocat­

eddetente,visitingTehranlastyear.Since

January,though,Iranian­backedgroupsin

YemenandIraq havelobbed aseriesof

dronesandmissilesatAbuDhabi,killing

threepeopleanddentingthecountry’srep­

utationforstability.

Still, despitethe attacks,Iran’s trade

ministerleda largedelegationtotheuae

lastmonth.“Theydidn’ttalkaboutit much

inthemedia.Buttheydidn’tcancelitei­

ther,”observesa Westerndiplomat.Ifthe

nucleardealisrevived,theEmiratescan

offerbillionsofdollarsofneededtradeand

investmentinexchangeforregionalcalm.

Ifitisnot,thedhowsinKhasabmayfind

theircargoespilinguponceagain.n

IRAN

BAHRAIN

KUWAIT

SYRIA

IRAQ

QATAR

UAE

SAUDIARABIA

Tehran

Erbil

The

Gulf

Strait of

Hormuz

Arabian Sea

Kermanshah

Bandar

Abbas

Musandam

(Oman)

Dubai

Fujairah Khasab

359

2.61bn

7

<1

152

69 6

2   3 362

1   

Baghdad

OMAN

TradewithIran

SelectedGulfcountries

2020,$m

Exports

Source:IMF

Imports

250 km

E

rbil,thecapital ofIraq’sauto­

nomous Kurdish region, has long

been the country’s safest haven—and its

friendliest to the West. But just after

midnight on March 13th Iran hammered

the city with 12 cruise missiles. The

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,

Iran’s most punchy force, claimed re­

sponsibility. No one was reported to have

been killed, but several buildings (pic­

tured) were clobbered. Iraq’s government

in Baghdad was shaken. The Kurds’

Western friends were shocked. 

Iran’s generals say the target was a

“strategic centre” of Israel’s spy agency,

Mossad. Iraq’s Kurds have long had dis­

creet links to Israel. In his younger days,

Masoud Barzani, the ruling Kurdish

family’s patriarch, once guided Jews

escaping from Saddam Hussein’s clutch­

es through Kurdistan’s mountain passes.

More worrying for Iran, Kurdistan’s high

ridges nowadays offer Israel listening

posts into Iran. The ayatollahs say the

region is a launchpad for covert Israeli

operations. Today’s Kurds sell a lot of

their oil to Israel and recently hosted a

gathering where Iraq was urged to follow

the example of other Arab states by nor­

malising ties to the Jewish one.

In any event, an Israeli­Iranian ding­

dong has long persisted. Last month

Israel’s air force raided an Iranian base

near the city of Kermanshah, destroying

much of Iran’s drone fleet. Iran also

blamed Israel for killing two senior

Revolutionary Guards in a raid on Syria

on March 7th.

Iran’s missile riposte sent a message

to the Western­leaning Barzani dynasty.

Some of the missiles hit a farm belonging

to Baz Karim Barzinji, the region’s most

prominentbusinessman,whoseoil

operations provide much of Kurdistan’s

revenue. Another hit a television station

owned by the Barzanis. Since Iraq’s elec­

tion in October, the ruling Kurdish clan

has infuriated Iran by working to exclude

Iran’s political allies and their militias

from government for the first time since

Saddam Hussein was overthrown in

2003. The Kurds have set up a Sunni bloc
with Sunni Arabs as a counter to Iran’s
hitherto dominant Shia protégés. They
have particularly annoyed Iran by allying
with Muqtada al­Sadr, a gruff anti­Irani­
an Shia cleric who emerged as the front­
runner after the election. One of his
cousins has been tipped to become the
next prime minister.
Iran’s men in Baghdad have bitten
back. Last month Iraq’s Supreme Court,
whose judges are close to Iran, ruled that
it is illegal for Kurdistan to export its oil
independently of the government in
Baghdad. “Iraq is a core Iranian asset.
Iran is not going to let the Barzanis prise
it away,” says an Iraqi oil analyst.
The missiles had another purpose.
Just as Western hopes of reviving the
nuclear deal with Iran were waning, the
ayatollahs were sending a signal to
America: ignore us at your peril. In other
times, America might have reacted force­
fully. After all, the missiles nearly hit an
American building on the edge of Erbil.
Iran may reckon that, with Joe Biden’s
administration distracted elsewhere, it
has a chance to tighten its grip on Iraq.
The Barzanis may yet fall back into line
with Iran. The message from Iran’s rulers
“is that Iraq is theirs”, says Hiwa Osman,
a Kurdish analyst. “And neither America
nor Israel can protect you.” 

Iranv IraqiKurds

Message by missile

Iran takes advantage of the crisis in Ukraine to attack Iraq’s Kurds