176 How to Win Every ArgumentWishful thinking
While many of us engage quite happily in wishful thinking, we
elevate it to the status of a fallacy when we use it in place of
argument. If we accept a contention because we would like it to
be true, rather than because of the arguments or evidence which
support it, we move into fallacy. Similarly, we also commit the
fallacy of wishful thinking if we reject something solely because
we do not wish it to be true.
Going to work in this awful weather would do no good for anyone. I
think I'll take the day off and stay in bed.
(Everyone must have felt the force of this argument at some time.
Unfortunately, while there may be reasons for and against going into
work, not wanting to is one which lacks persuasive force over
everyone except ourselves.)Our wishes rarely bear directly on the question of whether a
thing is true or false. We commit a fallacy by intruding them into
a discussion of the pros and cons. To suppose that the world is as
we would want it to be is good solipsism but bad logic.
Of course the environment talks will succeed. Otherwise it means man-
kind is on the way out.
(The fact that we want them to succeed does not mean that they will.
It could be that mankind is on the way out; in which case you might
just as well be packing as hoping.)Wishful thinking often appears to colour our judgement of
outcomes we are unable to influence.
He can't die. We couldn't manage without him.
(He did. They could.)