78 How to Win Every ArgumentFalse precision is as necessary to the continued happiness of
many academics as are public money and whisky. Whole
departments float upon it, just as some do on the other two
ingredients. Those who are engaged in the study of human
beings, for example, find few measuring rods scattered about.
Because the real qualities of people cannot be measured, indices
are constructed which can be measured, and then the indices are
passed off as the real thing.Birmingham children are more racist than their London counterparts. A
study of essays written by 10-year-olds showed that the London group
used 15 per cent less racial epithets than their peer group in
Birmingham.
(The assumptions here are manifold. Maybe one can identify and
agree upon what constitutes a racial epithet. Maybe their appearance
in essays reflects their importance in the lives of children. Maybe the
use of them by children is evidence of racism. Maybe the cultural
differences between Birmingham and London are not important etc.,
etc. None of these doubts qualify the opening line.)Macroeconomists happily report that growth-rates were only
1.4 per cent, instead of the predicted 1.7 per cent, without
telling us that some measurements of GDP cannot be taken
within 5 per cent accuracy. Some figures for growth of GDP
could be out by up to 10 per cent.
Psychologists measure the ability of children to solve set
problems and call their answers intelligence. Social scientists
measure how people respond to questions and describe the
answers as a measurement of attitudes. False precision is like a
hastily erected and flimsy bridge to carry our knowledge over
from reality into the world of our desire. The load is more than it
will bear.
Always use the fallacy when you need more authority for your
claims. Behind the figures you quote, your audience will conjure