Inductive Reasoning: Reaching Conclusions From Evidence • 371condition, 12 of the names were famous men (Ronald Reagan, Mick Jagger) and 14 were
nonfamous women. In the “famous women” condition, 12 of the names were famous
women (Tina Turner, Beatrix Potter) and 14 were nonfamous men. When participants
were asked to estimate whether there were more males or more females in the list they had
heard, their answer was infl uenced by whether they had heard the famous male list or the
famous female list. Seventy-seven percent of the participants who had heard the famous
male list stated that there were more males in their list (notice that there were actually
fewer), and 81 percent of the participants who had heard the famous female list stated that
there were more females in their list. This result is consistent with the availability heuristic,
because the famous names would be more easily remembered and would stand out when
participants were asked to decide whether there had been more male or female names.
The previous examples illustrate how the availability heuristic can mislead us into reach-
ing the wrong conclusion when less frequently occurring events stand out in our memory.
There are many situations, however, in which we remember events that do occur frequently.
For example, you might know from past observations that when it is cloudy and there is a
certain smell in the air, it is likely to rain later in the day. Or you may have noticed that your
boss is more likely to grant your requests when he or she is in a good mood.
Although observing correlations between events can be useful, sometimes people
fall into the trap of creating illusory correlations. Illusory correlations occur when a cor-
relation between two events appears to exist, but in reality there is no correlation or it is
much weaker than it is assumed to be. Illusory correlations can occur when we expect
two things to be related, so we fool ourselves into thinking they are related even when
they are not. These expectations may take the form of a stereotype—an oversimplifi ed
generalization about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative. A
stereotype about the characteristics of a particular group may lead people to pay par-
ticular attention to behaviors associated with that stereotype, and this attention creates
an illusory correlation that reinforces the stereotype. This phenomenon is related to the
availability heuristic because selective attention to the stereotypical behaviors makes
these behaviors more “available” (Chapman & Chapman, 1969; Hamilton, 1981).
We can appreciate how illusory correlations reinforce stereotypes by considering the
stereotype that gay males are effeminate. A person who believes this stereotype might pay
particular attention to effeminate gay characters on TV programs or in movies, and to
situations in which they see a person who they know is gay acting effeminate. Although
these observations support a correlation between being gay and being effeminate, the
person has ignored the large number of cases in which gay males are not effeminate. This
may be because these cases do not stand out or because the person chooses not to pay
attention to them. Whatever the reason, selectively taking into account only the situa-
tions that support the person’s preconceptions can create the illusion that a correlation
exists, when there may be only a weak correlation or none at all.THE REPRESENTATIVENESS HEURISTIC
While the availability heuristic is related to how often we expect events to occur, the
representativeness heuristic is related to the idea that people often make judgments
based on how much one event resembles another event.Making Judgments Based on Resemblances The representativeness heuristic states
that the probability that A is a member of class B can be determined by how well the
properties of A resembles the properties we usually associate with class B. To put this in
more concrete terms, consider the following demonstration.We randomly pick one male from the population of the United States. That male, Robert, wears
glasses, speaks quietly, and reads a lot. Is it more likely that Robert is a librarian or a farmer?Typical Reasoning
Copyright 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part.