The EconomistAugust 17th 2019 Asia 272 members at an intra-Afghan conference in
Doha organised by Germany and Qatar. The
previous meeting to have included Afghan
officials was seven years ago. Encouraging-
ly, the delegation in July included 11 wom-
en, among them the deputy head of Af-
ghanistan’s national security council. All
sides agreed to a vague formula of “Afghan
all-inclusive negotiations”, notes Thomas
Ruttig of the Afghanistan Analysts Net-
work, a research group. But they were at-
tending only in their personal capacities.
That raises the question: who could of-
ficially represent the government? Presi-
dent Ashraf Ghani’s legitimacy is disputed.
It would not be reinforced if he were to be
re-elected on September 28th, since char-
ges of vote-rigging are likely. During parlia-
mentary elections last October, almost
one-third of polling stations did not open,
mostly for security reasons, and turnout
was poor. Mr Khalilzad has suggested de-
laying the ballot; Mr Ghani refuses. On Au-
gust 7th Amrullah Saleh, the president’s
running-mate, tweeted: “There is no com-
promise over elections. None.”
America’s itchiness to withdraw would
put Afghan government negotiators at a
disadvantage in any talks with the Taliban.
In 2017 President Donald Trump said that
announcing a date for pulling out troops
would be “counterproductive”. Now he has
reportedly told advisers that he wants
them all out by America’s own presidential
elections in November 2020.
Such a deadline diminishes America’s
incentive to hold the Taliban to its word or
to resist its calls for a “complete Islamic
system” in Afghanistan. The result of talks
between the Afghan government and the
Taliban “could be more of a power-grab-
bing rather than power-sharing arrange-
ment,” says Sameer Lalwani of the Stimson
Centre, a think-tank. That could lead to a
full-blown civil war like the one that rav-
aged the country in the 1990s.
Mr Khalilzad is likely to need the sup-
port of regional powers. Pakistan has
backed the Taliban from its earliest days
and shelters its leaders. The country has
played a vital role in pushing the group to
negotiate. Some fear that India, by revok-
ing the statehood of Jammu & Kashmir on
August 6th (see next story), may have com-
plicated matters. Pakistan has hinted that
it might refuse to co-operate with the Af-
ghan peace process unless America backs
Pakistan’s position on Kashmir.
It is unlikely to do so. Pakistan has every
incentive to lubricate talks. A peace deal
might ease Pakistan’s strained relationship
with America, and a return to power by the
Taliban would be a blow to India, which has
strong ties with Mr Ghani’s government.
Neighbours would worry about renewed
instability that could spill over Afghani-
stan’s borders. For Mr Trump, that would be
someone else’s problem. 7
A
n information blackout has ob-
scured the northernmost tip of India.
Since it scrapped Jammu & Kashmir’s
largely nominal autonomy on August 5th
and carved the state into two territories,
the central government has maintained a
curfew in the region. Internet and tele-
phone services have been suspended. Tra-
vel has been restricted. A young academic
in Delhi says the lockdown made it impos-
sible for him to celebrate the Muslim festi-
val of Eid with his family in rural Kashmir.
The territory has “disappeared”, he says,
leaving people like him only able to guess
what might be happening there.
Official statements from the central
government do not shine much light. They
assert that no violent protests have taken
place since the change of Jammu & Kash-
mir’s status. But that seems unlikely. On
August 9th Al Jazeera and the bbcaired
footage of a large angry crowd in the Mus-
lim-dominated part that is known as the
Kashmir valley. At first the home ministry
insisted that no gatherings of more than 20
people had taken place. It also claimed that
no shots were fired by police, despite the
sound of gunfire in the videos. It was only
after four days that it reversed course and
acknowledged the protest (a separate one is
pictured). A day later it admitted the police
had used shotguns.
Police vans in the Kashmir valley have
been cruising the streets with their loud-
speakersblaringordersthatpeoplemuststay at home. But the government disputes
that there is a curfew in place at all. “Cur-
few” is a technical term, it says. There has
been no formal imposition of one.
The government has also failed to ex-
plain its legal basis for locking up many
Kashmiri politicians, including ones who
are relatively moderate, during the clamp-
down. Reports by Indian and foreign media
say that between 200 and 500 people are
being held in makeshift detention facili-
ties in Srinagar, the main city in Kashmir. A
senior official was asked by reporters
whether there was a legal justification.
“Yes,” he said simply, “but I cannot say
what.” Shah Faesal, a civil servant-turned-
politician, tweeted on August 12th that
Kashmir needed a “non-violent political
mass movement” to restore citizens’
rights. On August 14th he was detained at
Delhi’s airport and put under house arrest.
Mr Faesal is being held under the Public
Safety Act. This gives police the discretion
to place almost anyone under administra-
tive detention for up to two years. It is one
of many such laws that have long been in
force—the Armed Forces Special Powers
Act being the most notorious. They give the
authorities sweeping rights to imprison or
even shoot people they regard as trouble-
makers. The Supreme Court has taken an
indulgent line on the curfew. “When the
situation is such, we must have a real pic-
ture before we take a call on this,” said Arun
Mishra, one of its judges.
The prime minister, Narendra Modi, is
crowing. In an interview with ians, an In-
dian news agency, he said revoking Kash-
mir’s special status would “only empower
democracy even more”. That sounds im-
plausible. For now, the academic in Delhi
fears for his family’s safety. He hopes to
hear news from a friend who has just flown
to Srinagar (if he can leave again). “Dark-
nessisnota happysituation,”hesays. 7DELHI
In its struggle to subdue Kashmir, the
government is stripping it of libertiesCivil rights in KashmirAn area of
darkness
Defiance in the valley