Profiling the Operational Codes of Political Leadersthen on motivational variables. In the 19705, operational code stud-
ies focused on the philosophical and instrumental beliefs of leaders,
identified as the "answers" to the ten questions posed by George
(1969), which appear in figure 9.1. Philosophical beliefs are those
held by the leader to assess the nature of the political universe and
other actors. Instrumental beliefs are those that inform the leader's
own preferences for political actions in terms of strategies and tac-
tics. Holsti (1977) answered these questions with the development
of a typology of belief systems, which he suggested were ideal types
of operational codes. Both George and Holsti were guided in their
thinking by cognitive consistency theory, which assumed that a
leader's operational code beliefs were internally consistent with one
another and that a leader's decisions were consistent with these
beliefs. Specifically, they argued that a leader's philosophical beliefs
about the nature of the political universe acted as a "master belief,"
which influenced the contents of the remaining philosophical and
instrumental beliefs.
Holsti (1977) employed this assumption of a master belief in the
construction of his operational code typology. He speculated that the
leader's beliefs about the nature and source of conflict in the political
universe were the basis for other philosophical beliefs about the
prospects for realizing fundamental goals, the predictability of the
political future, the leader's control over historical development, and
the role of chance. In turn, these philosophical beliefs influenced the
instrumental beliefs of the leader regarding the most effective strat-
egy and tactics, the optimum approach to the calculation and man-
agement of risks, and the utility and timing of employing different
means to protect or achieve political objectives.
For example, a leader who believes that political conflict is a per-
manent feature of the political universe is likely to be relatively pes-
simistic about the prospects for achieving fundamental political val-
ues, to view the political future as less predictable, to believe that
control over historical development is relatively low, and to assign a
higher role to chance in political affairs. On the other hand, a leader
who views conflict as temporary is likely to be more optimistic about
realizing goals, to be more confident in the predictability of the
future, to believe in greater control over historical development, and
to assign less importance to chance.