Assessing Leadership Style: Trait Analysis

Profiling the Operational Codes of Political Leaders

These predictions are forecasts of likely deviations from the norm of
reciprocity expected as a response to a stimulus, based on an assess-
ment of the leader's operational code (Leng 1993, 2000). It refers to
the mix of other behavior that accompanies the elements of the
response that match the stimulus and represents movement along a
continuum of escalation and deescalation anchored by an actor's own
previous move. Leaders with a locus of historical control index that
attributes roughly equal control to Self (P-4a) and Other (P-4b) are
most likely to follow a general strategy of reciprocity norm represented
by the Reward, Deter, Punish, and Compel tactics in figure 9.4.
The following example is based on the earlier illustrations for the
calculation and interpretation of VICS indices in the previous section
of this chapter. Those scores are from a speech by U.S. secretary of state
Dean Rusk and are reproduced along with their interpretations in
table 9.1. According to the data in table 9.1, the leader's instrumental

TABLE 9.1. A SAMPLE OPERATIONAL CODE PROFILE FOR SECRETARY OF

STATE DEAN RUSK

p-1.

P-2.

P-3.

P-4.

P-5.

1-1.

1-2.

1-3.

1-4.

1-5.

Diagnostic Propensities

Nature of the political universe

Realization of political values

Predictability of political future

Control over historical development

a. Self s control

b. Other's control

Role of chance

Choice and Shift Propensities

Strategic approach to goals

Tactical pursuit of goals

Risk orientation

Timing of action

a. Cooperation/conflict

b. Words/deeds

Utility of means

a. Reward

b. Promise

c. Appeal/support

d. Oppose/resist

e. Threaten

f. Punish

Score

-.21

-.31

.08

.53

.47

.96

+ .41

+ .27

.03

.57

.53

.20

.17

.34

.16

.06

.07

Interpretation

Somewhat hostile

Somewhat pessimistic

Very low predictability

Medium control

Medium control

Very high role

Definitely cooperative

Somewhat cooperative

Very low predictability

Medium flexibility

Medium flexibility

High utility

Medium utility

Very high utility

Medium utility

Low utility

Low utility

Source: Speech at the Annual Meeting of the American Historical Association,

Washington, D.C., Dec. 30, 1961.