The Psychological Assessment of Political Leadersa-distance measures involve some kind of content analysis of written
or verbal material.^5 Typically, these measures are carefully designed,
with examples and training procedures, to enable previously inexpe-
rienced scorers to apply them with high reliability (percent agree-
ment and correlation .85). A detailed discussion of issues and meth-
ods of psychological content analysis can be found in Holsti 1969;
Schafer 2000; Walker 2000; Winter 1992a, 1992^ and Winter and
Stewart 1977a.
Validated Variables
At-a-distance researchers typically use operationally defined person-
ality variables, the validity of which has been established through
systematic research. Elms (1986), for example, analyzed the person-
alities and public behavior of four key twentieth-century U.S. for-
eign policy advisers (House, Dulles, Kissinger, and Haig) in terms of
Machiavellianism, ego idealism, and authoritarianism—three vari-
ables with well-established, research-based validity credentials.
Compared to the vagaries of ordinary language that are inherent in
words such as stubbornness (as in the case of Wilson discussed previ-
ously), these three terms have relatively precise, operationally
defined, and delimited meanings.
The sections that follow review research relating political behav-
ior and outcomes to various single personality variables. For conve-
nience, the basic elements of personality can be grouped under three
broad headings (see also Schafer 2000, 516—18).Motives: the different classes of goals toward which people
direct their behavior. Power, achievement, and affiliation
are among the most frequently studied motives. Since many
motives or wishes involve conflict and are therefore
defended against or transformed, measures of defense mech-
anisms could also be included here.
Cognitions and beliefs: specific beliefs, attitudes, and values, as
well as more general cognitive styles.
Temperament and interpersonal traits: consistent individual dif-
ferences in style features, such as energy level, sociability,
impulse control, emotional stability, and styles of relating
to others.