The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

TheEconomistApril2nd 2022 BriefingThewarinUkraine 19

Itwillalsohavetodealwiththeriskof
furtherandperhapsmoreambitiouscoun­
terattacksbyUkraine. Thepossibilityof
takingthefighttotheenemyinthiswayis
probablyonereasonwhyVolodymyrZe­
lensky,Ukraine’spresident,isinsistently
askingitssupportersintheWestforheavi­
erkit,includingtanks,armouredperson­
nelcarriersandcombataircraft.
SomeofficialsthinkthatMrZelenskyis
askingforkithiscountrydoesnotneed,
andisunlikelytoget,soastohavea better
bargaining position when it comes to
thingshereallywants,suchasmoread­
vancedair­defencesystems.Othersreckon
thatheneeds to replenish hisdepleted
stocks;thereisnoclearsenseoutsidethe
countryofhowmuchmaterielUkrainehas
lost.Buttankswouldalsosupportmore
ambitious Ukrainian counter­offensives,
andgiventhesuccessofsomecounter­of­
fensivessofar,it wouldbestrangetothink
thatwasnotpartofthegenuinerationale.
AsMrZelenskysaidinhisinterviewwith
TheEconomist, planesandtankswould“al­
lowustounblockRussian­occupiedcities,
tobringfoodtoresidentsthere,totakethe
militaryinitiativeintoourownhands”.
There are hundreds of Soviet­made
tanks inthearsenalsofformerWarsaw
Pactmembersnowinnato, mostofwhich
wouldbe familiar enough to Ukrainian
tankcrewsfor themjust to hopinand
driveoff.TherearealsoSoviet­builtmig
fighterjets,which Poland,inparticular,
initiallyseemed keento handover, but
whichAmerica declinedtohelpdeliver.

“We’relookingatwhatwecando,”saidBo­

risJohnson,Britain’sprimeminister,after

anatosummitonMarch24th,“but...logis­

ticallyatthemomentit looksverydifficult

withbotharmourandjets.”

Logisticsarenottheonlyissue.Em­

manuel Macron, France’spresident, has

declaredthatprovidingUkrainewithtanks

andplaneswouldcrossa “redline”,turn­

ingnatointoa “co­belligerent”.ButMrZe­

lenskydoesnotacceptthisargument,in­

sistingthatthosewhoespouseitaresim­

plyafraidofMrPutin.

Notanks,eu

EvenifUkraineweretogetmoretanks,

though, theymight not provideit with

quitetheadvantage thatisbeinglooked

for.Tanksremainnecessaryforsomesorts

ofaction.Atthesametime,asthepast

weekshaveshown,theyareincreasingly

vulnerable.“OnethingthatI'mtakingaway

fromthiswaristhat,inlandwarfare,the

defenceremainsall­powerful,”saysBilly

Fabian,aformerinfantry officernowat

cnas, anAmericanthink­tank.Defenders

require fewerforces, chewthrough less

ammunition and fuel and suffer fewer

losses.Whatismore,anti­tankweapons

havegota lotbetter.Ukrainehasbenefited

from that dynamic thus far. If it were

forcedtomanoeuvreandsupplyforcesov­

erlongerdistances,Russianforcesmight

beabletodoastheyweredoneto.

Thebalanceofdefenceversusoffence;

theabilitytokeepsupplylinesopen;the

moraleandwillingnesstofightoftheop­

posing side; the capacity to “close the

skies”.Ifthere isto bealarge, decisive

clashinDonbasit couldturnonanyoneof

thosefactors.Butwhatwouldcomeafter?

IfRussiaweretoemergewiththeupper

hand,itmightcontinuethewar.Itmight

alternativelyusethewinasanexitstrat­

egy.WithDonbas“liberated”,Russiacould

declareits“specialoperation”tobea fam­

ousvictory. WithUkraine’sarmydealta

heavyblowit mightprovepossibleforRus­

siatoachievequitea lotofitsbroadergoals

withregard to its victim’sfuture status

throughnegotiation.

Ifnegotiationsfailed,Russiacouldgar­

risontroopsinDonbasforyears,asithas

doneinthe“frozenconflicts”inMoldova

andGeorgia.(OnMarch30thaRussian­

backed breakaway statelet in Georgia,

SouthOssetia,saiditwouldseektojoin

Russia.) Butif Russiaheld the territory

withouta deal,itwouldfinditselflocked

ina protractedstruggle.Ukrainiancoun­

terattacks would be relentless. Western

countries—buoyedbyUkraine’sresilience,

surprisedbytheirownsolidarityandwary

ofsetting aprecedent forother aggres­

sors—wouldcontinueapplyingpressure.

BritainandPolandbothsaidthisweekthat

theywouldopposeliftingsanctionsuntil

Russiawithdrewentirely.

Not anidealsituation. Butbetter for

Russiathantheoutcomeshoulditseeka

decisivevictoryinDonbasandfail.Ifthat

weretohappen,thegeneralsofspinwould

needtofinda wholenewwaraimtoclaim

tohavebeenfollowingallalong.n

Cumulativerefugeedepartures fromUkraine

SinceFeb24th2022,m 









Feb Mar

Source:UNHCR

*Includespeoplecrossingtheborderbetween

RomaniaandMoldova †March th

To March rd

To March th

Crimea

Russia

, †

Belarus

­­,€­

Romania

 ­ ,

Moldova

€€,€‚

Slovakia

€,€ƒ

Hungary

 €,€‚

Poland

, ,ƒƒ

UKRAINE

ArrivalsfromUkraine*,sinceFebruary  th     200 km

On March 30th the United Nations

announced that the number of refugees

fleeing Ukraine had passed 4m. The

pace of the exodus has slowed to less

than half that in the first weeks of the

war, however.

Flow of refugees

S&P 500,March 1st 2022=
110
105
100
95
March