The Economist - UK (2022-04-02)

The Economist April 2nd 2022 MiddleEast&Africa 45

R

ailwaydelaysarethebaneoftrav­

ellerstheworldover.Occasionally,

though,theymaybea lifesaver.In

Octoberyourcorrespondentboardeda

trainfromNigeria’scapital,Abuja,to

thenortherncityofKaduna.A fault

heldupitsdeparturefor 30 minutes.

Thiswasjustlongenoughthata train

comingintheoppositedirectionwas

thefirsttotriggerexplosivesplacedon

thetrack.Luckily,inthatattack,the

trainlimpedonandnobodywashurt.

Passengerstravellingonthesame

lineonMarch28thwerelessfortunate.

Firsta bombderailedtheirtrain.Then

gunmensetupontheestimated 400

passengersandguards,killingeight,

injuring 25 andkidnappinganun­

knownnumber.Theattackwasthe

mostbrazenyetbythekidnapping

gangslocallyknownasbanditsthat

terrorisetheregion.Thislawlessness,

inadditiontoa long­runninginsurgen­

cyinthenorth­eastbyjihadistsaffiliat­

edwithIslamicStateandregularclash­

esbetweenfarmersandherders,are

renderinglargepartsofAfrica’smost

populouscountryungovernable.

The190kmroadbetweenAbujaand

Kadunahaslongbeena favouritehunt­

inggroundforthegangs,whichreg­

ularlyambushtravellersandherdthem

intoforesthideoutswheretheyhold

themforransom.Inrecentyearsthou­

sandshavebeenabducted,withrela­

tivespayingbillionsofnaira(thereare

415 nairato$1)fortheirreturn.Many

hopedthattrains,whichstartedrun­

ningin2016,wouldbea saferalterna­

tive.Butaswell­heeledNigerians

switchedfromroadtorail,sothegangs

havebeguntargetingtrains.

“Wewarnedthatliveswillbelost,”

fumedRotimiAmaechi,thetransport

minister,aftertheattack,accusinghis

colleaguesofblockingfundsforcam­

erasandsensorsthatmighthaveavert­

edit.“Nowlivesarelost.”

Twodaysbeforethetrainoutrage,

gunmenattackedKadunaairport,

killinganemployeeandfurtherisolat­

ingthecity.Airlineshavesuspended

flights.Suchinsecurityisprompting

manyeducatedNigerianstoflee

abroad.Amongthemwouldhavebeen

ChineloNwando,a youngdentistwho

hadplannedtoemigratetoCanadathis

month.“I’minthetrain,I’vebeenshot,”

shetweeted,hoursbeforeherdeathwas

confirmed.“Pleaseprayforme.”

InsecurityinNigeria

Red line

A BUJA

Kidnappersbrazenlyderaila train

Ethiopia’scivilwar

The road not taken

T

heroadtopeaceinEthiopia  runs  for
about 500km through some of the most
inhospitable land on earth, from Semera in
Afar to Mekele, the capital of the state of Ti­
gray (see map). Cutting it is the front line in
Ethiopia’s 17­month­old civil war between
the  forces  of  Abiy  Ahmed,  the  national
prime  minister,  and  the  Tigrayan  People’s
Liberation Front (tplf), the party­cum­mi­
litia  that  runs  Tigray.  The  road  is  the  only
route authorised by the government for aid
shipments into Tigray, where hundreds of
thousands are starving. No food has moved
along it since the middle of December. 
The Semera­Mekele highway is thus the
proving ground of the “indefinite humani­
tarian  truce”  that  the  government  an­
nounced on March 24th and that Tigrayan
leaders provisionally accepted. If it holds,
it could help bring an end to a conflict that
has claimed tens of thousands of lives (no
official  figures  are  available)  and  that  still
threatens  to  tear  Ethiopia  apart.  The  first
crucial  test  is  whether  aid  starts  moving
along the main road. If it does not, then the
fighting could swiftly resume. 
As  The Economistwent  to  press,  tele­
communications  were  still  cut  off  and  no
lorries were heading to Tigray. Aid workers
say this is because the road through Afar, a
region  mostly  under  government  control,
is  still  too  dangerous  to  use.  There  have
been  skirmishes  with  Tigrayan  forces
nearby.  Many  Afars  are  furious  about  Ti­
grayan  incursions,  which  have  left  hun­
dreds of thousands homeless and hungry.
Some have attacked shipments of aid in re­
cent  weeks.  “First,  feed  Afar,”  says  Mussa
Adem, an opposition leader in the region. 
Part  of  the  problem  is  a  lack  of  agree­
ment  about  what  the  ceasefire  actually
means.  The  tplfhas  indicated  that  aid
must  flow  before  its  troops  will  withdraw
to Tigray’s borders. The government seems
to think the opposite. Both are already cry­
ing  foul.  On  March  28th  the  tplfaccused
the  government  of  lying  about  lifting  its
blockade.  The  government  accused  Ti­
grayan forces of blocking the road. 
Some  suspect  the  government’s  real
aim  is  to  buy  time  while  staving  off  the
threat  of  American  sanctions.  “You  can’t
call it a humanitarian truce and then con­
dition  it  on  a  withdrawal,”  says  a  Western
diplomat.  That  Abiy  has  not  made  visible
efforts to make sure aid gets through Afar
unimpeded only adds to such concerns. 
Still, there are some grounds for think­

ingthatbothsidesareinchingcloserto

endingthewar.Thetplf, whichlastyear

seemedsettostormthecapital,AddisAba­

ba, has since suffered setbacks on the

battlefieldandisunabletorelievethesuf­

feringofcivilians.ThousandsofTigrayans

arecrossingintotheneighbouringAmhara

regiontoescapehungeranddronestrikes

inflictedonthembygovernmentforces.“I

don’tthinkthey’vegotmuchwiggleroom,”

saysaunofficial,referringtothetplf.

IndirecttalksmediatedbyAmericaand

the African Union have begun bearing

fruit. Military commanders have made

contactandbothsideshavetoneddown

their rhetoric.Fightingismuch lessin­

tensethanitwaslastyear.SinceJanuary

the government has released many Ti­

grayansfromprison,includingsometplf

leaders.A three­monthstateofemergency

wasliftedinFebruary.

Asked to explain the government’s

shift,a seniorofficialfromtherulingparty

says,“Diplomaticpressure,theeconomy,

war­weariness—inthatorder.”DavidSat­

terfield, America’sspecial envoyfor the

HornofAfrica,wasinAddisAbabadaysbe­

foretheceasefirewasannounced.America

hasalreadysuspendedduty­freeaccessfor

Ethiopiangoodsandtwobillsonfurther

sanctionsarecurrentlybeforeCongress.

Ethiopia’s economy is collapsing.

Spending onthe war hasexacerbated a

shortage offoreign currency. Banks are

runningdryandfactoriesarecuttingback

forwantofimportedmaterials.Russia’s

invasionofUkrainemeansinflationmay

climbfromitscurrentrateof34%. “There

isnochoicebuttoendthewar,”saysa cen­

tralbanker.“Theeconomicconsequenceis

beyondwhatthecountrycanbear.”

Evenso,progresstowardspeacemay

yet founder. In recentdaysbusloads of

Ethiopiantroopshavebeenseenmoving

north towardsTigray.tplfleaderswarn

ominouslyoflaunchinganewoffensive

shouldaidnotarrivesoon.“Peoplearelos­

ing patience,”saysa Tigrayandiplomat.

TheroadfromAfartoTigrayhasa forkthat

leadsstraightbacktowar.n

A DDIS ABABA
A fragile truce offers hope

Tigray

Amhara

Afar

Mekele

Semera

Highway

Red Sea

ian

ed*

ERITREA

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

Accesstohumanitarian

aidishighlyrestricted*

State boundary

100 km

Food insecurity, Feb-May 0 f ’cast

Sources:FEWS NET; OCHA *At Mar 2022

Emergency Crisis

Stressed Minimal