32 Europe The Economist April 9th 2022
VaccinatedagainstViktor
F
rom acynical European perspective, Viktor Orban’s election
triumphs are like covid19 waves: nasty and seemingly inevita
ble, but less concerning once you have worked out how to live with
them. And so it seems with the Hungarian prime minister’s victo
ry at the polls on April 3rd, his fourth in a row. The size of Mr Or
ban’s win surprised the pundits. Yet the symptoms for the rest of
Europe will be relatively mild. In recent months Hungary has been
in the diplomatic equivalent of quarantine, thanks to its insis
tence on staying in a bubble with Russia. Better yet, Europe may
have found new ways to combat this longrunning affliction. Po
tent though it is at home, Mr Orban’s brand of “illiberal democra
cy” may finally be fading in virulence.
True, Mr Orban’s victory is one of a long series of unwelcome
triumphs by practitioners of despotlite politics. His resounding
win will cheer strongmen who like to add a veneer of democratic
legitimacy to their autocratic regimes, from Recep Tayyip Erdogan
in Turkey to Vladimir Putin in Russia. But Mr Orban’s influence
beyond Hungary—not least in America’s Trumpian swamp—
comes from his contrived defiance towards liberal “elites” in Brus
sels and elsewhere. Sitting at Europe’s top table while flouting its
rules is a core part of the Orban shtick. The more his European
peers rant ineffectually about Hungary misspending eufunds,
hobbling the media, bashing gay people and subverting courts,
the more Mr Orban looks like he matters.
No one, in the euor elsewhere, can turn Mr Orban back into the
liberal politician he once seemed to be. Yet Europe has a rare op
portunity to isolate and neutralise him. If it works, Mr Orban, the
eu’s longestserving leader currently in office, will become a poli
tician whose relevance barely extends beyond Hungary’s borders.
Three things have changed since the last time Fidesz tri
umphed at the polls, in 2018. The first is Russia’s invasion of Uk
raine. This may have helped Mr Orban win: statebacked media
unquestioningly relayed his baseless claim that the opposition
would drag Hungary into war with Russia. But positioning himself
as the closest thing to an ally Mr Putin has in the eu—by opposing
sending weapons to Ukraine, and balking at many proposed sanc
tions—has stripped Mr Orban of allies. Fidesz’s election victories
used to be cheered by some of Hungary’s neighbours, such as PolandandSlovakia. This win, by contrast, was greeted the way of
fice workers greet the news that a deskmate has covid. The only
noteworthy message of congratulations came from Mr Putin.
Until now, Europe has been forced to tolerate Mr Orban’s be
haviour because he had allies. Countries in the Visegrad Group,
comprising Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia,
long elected leaders who shared Mr Orban’s illiberal leanings. This
clubwithinaclub stymied even the largely symbolic wristslap
ping the eucan mete out to those who break its rules: anyone bar
the country being targeted could veto a move to strip it of voting
rights in eumeetings, for example. But the Czech Republic and
Slovakia have in recent years elected more centrist politicians. Po
land, run by the Law and Justice party, still leans illiberal and had
stuck with Hungary the longest. Now it is sharply criticising Mr
Orban for his proRussian stance. Hungary is in a club of one.
Second, Europe has new powers to bring wayward members to
heel. An unspoken deal paved the way for a slew of central Euro
pean states to join the euin 2004. Richer countries already in the
club would agree to funnel lots of cash to Hungary and others to
improve their infrastructure and so forth. In exchange, the “new”
Europeans would guarantee open economies, free courts, unre
strained media and other liberal requirements. On returning to
power in 2010 (after a first stint from 19982002), Mr Orban real
ised that he could take the money without honouring his side of
the bargain. European taxpayers ended up funding projects that
made his cronies fabulously rich. Yet even brazen defiance of eu
principles did not stop the flow of cash.
Now it might. A €750bn ($818bn) fund to ease the economic ef
fects of covid, known as Next Generation eu, required member
states to satisfy Eurocrats that the money would be well spent. Po
land and Hungary are the only two countries to have been re
buffed, both over infringements of the rule of law. Poland seems
likely to get its sharesoon: its ruling party has made gestures to
comply with eudemands that it stop nobbling the court system,
and other members want to reward it for taking in most of the ref
ugees from Ukraine. Hungary has begged for the €7bn earmarked
for it, to no avail. On April 5th Ursula von der Leyen, the president
of the European Commission, said a new mechanism to withhold
even regular eufunds from countries not abiding by European
norms would be used for the first time against Hungary. It stands
to lose up to €24bn over the next five years; Poland will be spared.
Mr Orban can remain defiant, but he may run out of money.Buda-pest
Perhaps most importantly, war on the continent has worn down
whatever patience Europe once had towards those who seek to un
dermine it. Mr Putin’s behaviour has shown that indulging auto
crats, in the hope that trade with liberal countries will lead them to
change their ways, doesn’t work. Angela Merkel, a fan of that ap
proach in her time as German chancellor, repeatedly blocked at
tacks on Mr Orban. Until a year ago she made sure Fidesz was al
lowed to remain in the European People’s Party, the alliance of
centreright parties in the European Parliament. Now she is gone.
None of this is likely to be enough to change Mr Orban’s ways.
For the next four years at least he will continue to dominate his
unfortunate country, and his cronies will continue to loot it. But
an isolated Hungary stripped of eufunding will stand as a cau
tionary tale to other wouldbe strongmen in the bloc: thereare
limits to what they can get away with. There is no cure yet forOr
banism. But in Europe, at least, it looks like it can be contained.nCharlemagne
Hungary cannot shake off Viktor Orban, but the rest of Europe will cope