The Economist April 9th 2022 41
Middle East & AfricaSudan’scrisisAfter the tyrant
B
reaking fastat sundown during Ram
adan, which started on April 2nd, will
not be the usual joyful family occasion for
many Sudanese this year. The communal
iftarwill be blighted by the shortage, and
spiralling cost, of wheat and other basics.
Some expect this year’s Ramadan to ex
plode into a confrontation between a frus
trated, immiserated people and the coun
try’s brutal military regime.
Few Sudanese can remember a time
when their country was in such a bleak
state. The currency is in free fall, having
plunged by more than a quarter since Octo
ber. Inflation is officially 260%, but proba
bly even higher. Some 9m people (out of a
population of about 44m) face “acute hun
ger”, says the un’s World Food Programme,
and this number could double by Septem
ber. Khartoum, the capital, is rocked by
daily antiregime protests and the often
violent response of the security forces,
who have killed about 90 people over the
past five months (see chart on next page).
Blame this mess on a military coup led
by General Abdel Fattah alBurhan in Octo
ber, which reversed Sudan’s fragile transition to democracy. This had started three
years ago after protesters took to the
streets to eject Omar alBashir, a ruthless
Islamist despot who had ruled the country
for 30 years. As he was about to fall in April
2019, the army seized power, hoping to
keep its grip on politics and the economy.
But demonstrations and international
pressure pushed the generals into a pact
with the leaders of the protests, whereby
they promised to hand control to civilians
by 2021 ahead of elections that were due to
take place this year.
Western donors and multilateral banks
pledged tens of billions of dollars in assis
tance and debt relief to support the demo
cratic transition. But the second coup in
October has stopped much of that helpfrom reaching Sudan, or delayed it. Ameri
ca, the World Bank and the imfhave halted
the flow of at least $1.4bn in aid and assis
tance. The junta, running short of funds,
has cut the once generous subsidies it lav
ished on wheat and fuel. But it is doing so
without the Western aidfunded safety
nets that were meant to cushion the blow
to the country’s poor. They are furious;
more protests are likely.
All these woes have been compounded
by Vladimir Putin’s war. More than 80% of
Sudan’s wheat imports come from Russia
and Ukraine, and the conflict has already
interrupted supplies. Last month the local
price of wheat rose above $550 a tonne, an
increase of 180% compared with a year ago.
The generals running the country,
meanwhile, are desperate for cash to keep
the government functioning. To plug holes
in the budget they are increasing taxes on
businesses. This looks like wishful think
ing, since few businesses pay much tax at
all, says Kholood Khair, an analyst in Khar
toum; many are struggling to survive. More
notably and more opaquely, the generals
have gone begging for funds from coun
tries that used to back the old regime. They
may be hawking Sudan’s few remaining as
sets in exchange.
General Burhan recently visited the Un
ited Arab Emirates (uae) to get pledges of
support for Sudan’s banks and currency, as
well as investment in unspecified “devel
opment projects”. One of these may in
volve dpWorld, the uae’s port operator,
which for years has had its eye on Sudan’sSudan faces collapse three years after the fall of its genocidal dictator→Alsointhissection
42 Mozambique’strialofthecentury
43 Singlewomenseeking flats
43 BatteredBenghazi
44 Taxing the Middle East