The Economist - UK (2022-04-09)

50 China TheEconomistApril9th 2022

drenfromtheirparents.Videosofdozens

ofchildren,somejustmonthsold,lying

fivetoa bed,causedanuproar.Thegovern­

menthassincesaidthatinfectedparents

couldaccompanytheircovid­positiveoff­

spring, andthathealthyparentsofinfected

childrenwithspecialrequirementscould

applytogowiththem.

Peoplehavealsobeenangeredbythe

leakedrecordingofa phonecallpurport­

edlybetweena Shanghairesidentandan

officialfromthelocalofficeoftheChinese

CentreforDiseaseControlandPrevention.

Onthecall,whichTheEconomisthasnot

verified,theofficialsaysShanghai’spoli­

cieshavebeendrivenbypoliticalconsider­

ations, not public­health concerns. She

saysthatco­ordinationbetweenhospitals

hasbeenpoorandthatmedicalsupplies

arerunninglow.Peoplewithmildorno

symptomsshouldquarantineathome,she

suggests,contradictingofficialpolicy.She

alsosaystestshavebeenriggedtoshow

negativeresultsinordertofreeupcapacity

intheoverwhelmedhealthsystemwhile

appearingtoadheretothegovernment’s

zero­covidmandate.

Newsofthecallwasquicklyfollowed

bya visittoShanghaibySunChunlan,a

deputyprimeministerinchargeoffight­

ingcovid,whoreiteratedthestate’s“un­

swervingadherencetothedynamiczero­

covidapproach”.Untilrecentlythatstrat­

egyhasseemedbroadlypopular,asithas

allowedmost ofChina’s1.4bnpeopleto

leadrelatively normallives.Butthefast

spreadofOmicronmeansthenumberof

peoplecaughtupinthestate’scovidcon­

trolsisgrowing,includingallofShanghai’s

residents.Thegrumblingisgettinglouder

onsocialmedia,despitethestate’sbestef­

fortstocensorit.ComplaintsfromShang­

hairesonateloudlyamongChina’sleaders:

thecity is ofimmense political impor­

tance,beinghometomanyofthecountry’s

richandpowerful.

Thereisnoeasyremedyforitssuffer­

ings.MrXiisexpectedtogaina thirdterm

aspartychieflaterthisyear,inviolationof

recentnorms.Hedoesnotwantthatmo­

mentoftriumphtobeovershadowedby

pandemic­related chaos. A relaxationof

controlsmightcauseanevenbiggersurge

ofinfectionsthatcouldimperilfarmoreof

thecountry’sricketyhealthinfrastructure.

Butmaintainingthemwouldberisky,too.

Analystsbelievethemeasuresaredealinga

bigblowtoChina’seconomy,whichmay

notgrowatallthisquartercomparedwith

thelast(seeFinancesection).

WhateffectthiswillhaveonChina’s

politicsisa subjectofmuchspeculation.

One nameto watchis thatofLiQiang,

Shanghai’spartysecretaryanda closeally

ofthepresident.ExpertsexpectMrLitobe

picked for the seven­member Politburo

Standing Committee,thecountry’smost

powerful political body, later this year.

Somethinkhewillbecomethenextprime

minister.ButthemessinShanghaimay

dimMrLi’sprospects.InHongKong,cen­

tral­governmentfrustrationwiththecity’s

handlingofa recentcovidwavecouldbe

onereasonwhyCarrieLamhasannounced

shewillnotstandagainastheterritory’s

chiefexecutive(seenextstory).

Fornow,casesinShanghaicontinueto

rise. Food is growingscarcer. Residents

have been filmed on their balconies,

chantingtobesetfree.Butmostoldpeople

have notbeen vaccinated andrelatively

few Chinese have natural immunity. A

largeoutbreakinthecountrycouldresult

inmillionsofdeaths.TheeffortinShang­

haimaylooklikea militarycampaign,but

it istoavoida broaderwar.n

China tightens up

Effective lockdown index*

*Quantitativemeasureofmandatedandvoluntary social

distancing.Seven-daymovingaverage †Excluding China

Source:GoldmanSachs

Most stringent=100

80

60

40

20

0

2020 21 22

China

Asia-

Pacific†

Western

Europe

North

America

Global

PoliticsinHongKong

A new sheriff in town

L

ess thanthree  years  ago,  news  of  her

imminent  departure  would  have  been

greeted  with  joy  on  the  streets  of  Hong

Kong.  Carrie  Lam,  the  territory’s  leader

(pictured, right), was reviled by the pro­de­

mocracy protesters whose demonstrations

in 2019 snowballed into the biggest unrest

of its kind in the territory’s history. But Mrs

Lam’s announcement on April 4th that she

would  not  seek  another  term  in  office—

meaning she has less than three months to

serve—stirred little cheer. The central gov­

ernment plans to replace her with a tough

ex­policeman,  John  Lee  (pictured,  left).

What the public thinks matters little. 

Interaction  between  the  Communist

Party in Beijing and Hong Kong’s chief ex­

ecutive,  as  the  city’s  leader  is  known,  is

shrouded  in  secrecy.  So  it  is  hard  to  work

out  whether  Mrs  Lam  had  a  choice.  She

said  she  had  told  the  central  authorities  a

year ago that she did not want another five­

year  term,  “entirely”  for  family  reasons.

But that could be a smokescreen. The party

probably  wants  her  to  go.  Newspapers  in

Hong  Kong  that  are  under  the  party’s

thumb have expressed no disappointment

about  her  decision.  They  have  intimated

that Mr Lee, who was Hong Kong’s security

chief  during  the  upheaval,  is  a  shoo­in  to

succeed her. 

One  reason  for  wanting  a  new  leader

may  be  Mrs  Lam’s  handling  of  the  territo­

ry’s latest wave of covid­19, for which it was

ill prepared. Thousands of people, most of

them  elderly,  have  died:  vaccination  rates

within this group are low. Despite (and be­

cause of ) Hong Kong’s “zero­covid” policy,

which matches mainland China’s, medical

facilities have been overwhelmed by covid

patients. The central authorities have been

quick to punish local leaders on the main­

land  for  much  smaller  outbreaks  within

their  jurisdictions.  Hong  Kong  notionally

enjoys  a  “high  degree  of  autonomy”,  but

the party may want to make a point that on

this matter, no laxity is allowed. 

Officials in Beijing may also resent Mrs

Lam’s seeming failure to anticipate the un­

rest  in  2019,  which  was  triggered  by  her

John Lee, a tough ex-cop, looks set to become Hong Kong’s leader

Party people