The Economist April 16th 2022 39
Middle East & AfricaAtruceinYemenHope against hope for a lasting peace
S
oon afteriftar, the fastbreaking meal
during Ramadan, a group of influential
Yemenis was summoned to the Saudi royal
court. They were in Riyadh on April 6th for
peace talks to help end Yemen’s long war.
But there was little to discuss: the Houthis,
a rugged Shia group from northern Yemen
who have conquered much of the country
(see map on next page), refused to attend,
saying they would talk only in a neutral
country. Instead the peace conference be
came a venue for palace intrigue. The bal
ance of power continues to shift against
the Saudis and their Yemeni allies. But a
lasting peace remains elusive.
As several Yemenis tell the tale, the
grandees in Riyadh were relieved of their
mobile phones and put in separate rooms.
The Saudis ordered Yemen’s feckless presi
dent, Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi, to cede
power to an eightman council. His resig
nation was duly announced to the media.
Only then were the council members, who
had been cooling their heels for hours, told
of their unexpected promotions.
The shakeup came after a twomonthceasefire began on April 2nd, the first na
tionwide truce since 2016. Both the Houth
is and the Saudiled coalition fighting
them have accused each other of viola
tions. Still, violence has dropped from its
highest level in almost four years (see chart
on next page), giving Yemenis a bit of relief
during the Ramadan holiday. Some dip
lomats are hopeful that the truce could be
extended and lead to a more durable peace.
That still seems unlikely. The presiden
tial council is meant to forge a united
front, either to fight the Houthis more ef
fectively or to broker a peace deal. But its
members do not like each other and cannot
agree on much. That the Saudis presented
the council as a fait accompli suggests theyare eager for a quick way out of a ruinous
war. But a deal that creates a viable Yemeni
state looks further away than ever.
The coalition invaded in 2015 after the
Houthis seized large parts of the country,
including the capital, Sana’a. It expected to
dislodge them within weeks. Instead it got
stuck in a quagmire. No one is winning,
but the Saudis are certainly losing vast
amounts of money and prestige.
Yemen’s 30m people are the chief vic
tims. An estimated 377,000 have died from
fighting, hunger and disease. The un says
17m go hungry. Threequarters rely on aid
to survive. Only half the country’s hospi
tals and clinics are working.
The Saudiled coalition has largely re
fused to allow fuel shipments through the
port of Hodeida, which the Houthis con
trol.The blockade has caused a severe fuel
shortage in the Houthicontrolled areas,
where blackmarket petrol can fetch more
than $3 a litre. Under the terms of the truce,
the Saudis will let oil tankers unload at Ho
deida. The first two of a promised 18 docked
earlier this month.
Two commercial flights a week will also
be allowed to and from Sana’a; its airport
has been closed to ordinary traffic since2016. But it is unclear when they will start
or who will be let aboard. There is talk of
reopening roads to Taiz, which the Houthis
have been encircling for years. These are
all modest gestures, given the scale of Ye
men’s suffering. Though they are welcome,
many Yemenis doubt they will last.
D UBAI
A truce and a fragile new government may mean only a lull→Alsointhissection
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