The Economist - UK (2022-04-16)

44 Europe TheEconomistApril16th 2022

The  two  finalists  are  nowbackonthe

campaign trail. Ms Le Pencanexpect82%

of  the  far­right  vote  that  wenttoMrZem­

mour,  says  a  Harris  Interactivepoll. Mr

Macron  can  hope  for  54%oftheGreens’

vote, 52% of the Socialists’,and46%ofMrs

Pécresse’s. She, Mr Jadot andtheSocialists’

Anne Hidalgo, as well as theCommunists’

Fabien Roussel, all urged voterstobackMr

Macron to keep out Ms LePen.Yetnoneof

these eliminated candidateshasmanyvot­

ers to offer, and a lot of themwillabstain.

Instead  the  key  to  the  secondroundis

in the hands of those whobackedMrMé­

lenchon in the first. On electionnight,the

sharp­tongued,  70­year­oldradicalurged

his supporters not to give “asinglevote”to

Ms Le Pen. But some of his voteisprimarily

anti­establishment  and  anti­liberal.This

makes  it  less  compatiblewith the pro­

European  Mr  Macron,  whowantstoraise

the retirement age from 62yearsto65,than

with Ms Le Pen, who promisestolowerfuel

prices  and  the  pension  age.She,likeMr

Mélenchon, is anti­nato, Euroscepticand

pro­Russia.  Around  a  thirdofMrMélen­

chon’s  voters  say  they  willnowbackMr

Macron;  20%  will  supportMsLePen.The

rest are undecided, or likelynottovote.

On  April  11th  Mr  Macrontookhiscam­

paign  to  hostile  territory in northern

France’s former mining basin.Hestopped

in Carvin, a village that putMsLePentop,

followed  by  Mr  Mélenchon.SittinginLe

Bellevue café, Mr Macron declaredhimself

“the  candidate  who  speaksto everyone”

and  said  that  he  would  fightMsLePen’s

ideas “until the last second”.Hispension­

age hike, he said, could bephasedinmore

gradually.  Firms  that  payhighdividends

could be compelled to giveemployeestax­

free bonuses. She, meanwhile,isposingas

the “candidate of unity”, whowouldbring

calm after the chaos. 

As French minds turn tothehardchoice

ahead,  the  candidates  will come under

greater scrutiny. One concernwillbeMsLe

Pen’s  past  sympathy  for  Russia’sVladimir

Putin.  Another  will  be  herplansfor“na­

tional  preference”  for  Frenchcitizens,in

jobs  and  benefits,  a  directclashwitheu

law.  “A  Le  Pen  presidency would turn

France away from the Franco­Germanaxis

towards  Hungary  and  Poland,”saysTara

Varma, of the European CouncilonForeign

Relations.  “They  are  tryingto transform

the eufrom the inside.”

With  little  time  left,  acrucialmoment

will be a televised debate onApril20th.In

2017  Ms  Le  Pen  was  woefullyunprepared.

This  time,  she  will  be  betterbriefed.Her

task will be to come acrossasa competent

leader­in­waiting; Mr Macron’swillbenot

to appear condescending. OnApril12thThe

Economist’s  election  modelgaveMrMac­

ron an 81% probability of winning,against

19% for Ms Le Pen. He remainstheclearfa­

vourite, but it is not over yet.n

FinlandandNATO

Stretching the

border

E

venasrussiantroopsweremassing

onUkraine’sbordersinJanuary,Sanna

Marin,Finland’sprimeminister,insisted

that it was “very unlikely” her country

wouldjoinnatoduringhertimeinoffice.

Threemonthsandoneinvasionlater,Fin­

landishurtlingtowardsmembership.On

April 2ndMs Marin toldFinns thatthe

countrywouldhave toreach adecision

“thisspring”.Assheexplained,“Russiais

nottheneighbourwethoughtit was.”

AftertwogrindingwarswiththeSoviet

Union,Finland(unlikemostofeasternEu­

rope) keptits independencethroughout

thecoldwar.Thepriceofdoingsowasneu­

trality.FinlandboughtarmsfrombothEast

andWest,butstayed outofformalalli­

ances.Thatarrangement,andthewayin

whichSovietpressuredistortedFinland’s

domesticpolitics,becameknownbythe

pejorativetermFinlandisation.Whenthe

Soviet Union dissolved, Finland, along

withSweden,tooktheleapofjoiningthe

EuropeanUnion,bindingitclosertoother

European countries. And after Russia’s

first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, both

countries intensifiedjointexercisesand

otherformsofco­operationwithnato.

In 2019 justoverhalfofFinnswereop­

posedtonatomembership.OnFebruary

28th,fourdaysafterRussiainvadedUk­

raine,thepollsshowedmajoritysupport

forthefirsttime.Thelatest,takenbetween

April6thand11th,revealed68%infavour,

12%againstand20%undecided.Thatin­

cludesmajoritiesamongsupportersofall

partiesbartheLeftAlliance.Itiswidelyas­

sumedthatif SauliNiinisto,Finland’spop­

ularpresident,weretogivehisendorse­

ment,supportwouldgrowyetmore.

Both Ms Marin and Mr Niinisto are

keepingsilent,toallowa politicalprocess

toplayout.“April,MayandJuneareimpor­

tant—andinmanywayshistoric—months

inFinland,”saysHenriVanhanen,afor­

eign­policyexpertandadvisertothecen­

tre­rightKokoomusparty.Agovernment

reportsettingoutthenewoutlookforFin­

land’ssecuritysincetheRussianinvasion

wasduetobepublishedonApril13th.

Parliamentwillthendebatetheissue.

After that, a second government report

couldmakea formalrecommendationon

natomembership.Aspecialparliamenta­

ry monitoring group, madeup ofparty

leadersandcommitteechairs,willplayan

importantroleinsignallingthepolitical

consensus.A committee ofgovernment

ministersandMrNiinistowilltaketheir

cuefromthat.Thefinalcallremainswith

parliament,thoughwhetheritwillneeda

two­thirdsmajoritydependsonitsconsti­

tutionalcommittee.

Oncea bidgoesin,Finlandwouldbees­

peciallyvulnerable:subjecttoRussia’sire,

butnotyetcoveredbyArticleFive,nato’s

mutual­defenceclause.Oneanswertothat

istomovefast.OnApril3rdJensStolten­

berg, nato’s secretary­general,said that

Finnish or Swedish accession could be

done“ina relativelyquickway”.(Sweden’s

debateisproceedingmuchmoreslowly,

butitsarmedforcesareintertwinedwith

Finland’s, so if Finland jumps, Sweden

probablywill,too.)MrStoltenberghasalso

hintedatinterimsecurityguarantees,in

effectgivingFinlandthebenefitsofmem­

bershipbeforeit formallyjoins.

Inthe1990snatoshareda borderofon­

ly196kmwithRussia, intheuppermost

fringesofNorway(althoughTurkeyused

tobordertheSovietUnion).WhenPoland

joinedin 1999 thatroseto428km,thanksto

itsborderwiththeRussianexclaveofKali­

ningrad.Aftertheaccessionofthethree

Balticstatesin2004,thesharedfrontier

leapt to 1,233km. If Finland takes the

plunge,asseemslikely,thecommonbor­

derwillmorethandouble(seemap).

Thathasimplicationsforbothsides.A

countrythat has prizedstable relations

withRussiafor 74 yearswouldfacea new

andsustainedlevelofthreat,asMrNiinis­

towarnedrecently.ButRussia,too,would

havetoreconsiderthesecurityoftheGulf

of Finland and the ports around Mur­

mansk.Theironyisthata warinUkraine

launchedbyVladimirPutinostensiblyto

keepnatoatbaylookssettobringthealli­

ancecloserthaneverbefore.n

H ELSINKI

Finlandishurtlingtowards

membershipofnato

NORWAY

HUNGARY

CZECHREP.

ROMANIA

BULGARIA

BELARUS

CRIMEA

Black Sea

Baltic

Sea

POLAND

UKRAINE

FINLAND

SWEDEN

ESTONIA

TURKEY

RUSSIA

LATVIA

LITH.

ITALY

Kyiv

Moscow

Murmansk

Kaliningrad

GERMANY

Gulf of

Finland

NATO members