© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016 371
M.J. Germino et al. (eds.), Exotic Brome-Grasses in Arid and Semiarid
Ecosystems of the Western US, Springer Series on Environmental Management,
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-24930-8_13
Chapter 13
State-and-Transition Models: Conceptual
Versus Simulation Perspectives, Usefulness
and Breadth of Use, and Land Management
Applications
Louis Provencher, Leonardo Frid, Christina Czembor,
and Jeffrey T. Morisette
Abstract State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling (STSM) is a quantitative
analysis method that can consolidate a wide array of resource management issues
under a “what-if” scenario exercise. STSM can be seen as an ensemble of models,
such as climate models, ecological models, and economic models that incorporate
human dimensions and management options. This chapter presents STSM as a tool
to help synthesize information on social–ecological systems and to investigate some
of the management issues associated with exotic annual Bromus species, which
have been described elsewhere in this book. Definitions, terminology, and perspec-
tives on conceptual and computer-simulated stochastic state-and-transition models
are given first, followed by a brief review of past STSM studies relevant to the man-
agement of Bromus species. A detailed case study illustrates the usefulness of
STSM for land management. As a whole, this chapter is intended to demonstrate
how STSM can help both managers and scientists: (a) determine efficient resource
allocation for monitoring nonnative grasses; (b) evaluate sources of uncertainty in
model simulation results involving expert opinion, and their consequences for
L. Provencher (*)
The Nature Conservancy, Reno, NV 89501, USA
e-mail: [email protected]
L. Frid
Apex Resource Management Solutions Ltd., Bowen Island, BC, Canada
e-mail: [email protected]
C. Czembor
Knight Piésold Ltd., Vancouver, BC, Canada
e-mail: [email protected]
J.T. Morisette
US Geological Survey, North Central Climate Science Center, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
e-mail: [email protected]