420 B. B. Fand et al.
Introduction
Agricultural productivity is substantially lim-
ited by the pest damage at various stages of crop
growth; with worldwide average yield loss of
18 % despite timely crop protection measures
(Oerke et al. 1994 , 2006 ). In India, pest dam-
age varies considerably in different agroclimatic
regions across the country mainly due to differ-
ential impacts of several abiotic factors such as
temperature, humidity, and rainfall (Reed and
Pawar 1981 ), which indicates further intensifi-
cation of yield losses due to increased incidence
of insect pests in future climate change scenario.
The global climate change, a well-established
fact and reality has been predicted to raise the
mean surface temperature of earth by 1.5–5.8 °C
by the end of this century (Govindasamy et al.
2003 ; Hijmans et al. 2005 ; IPCC 2007 ). Insects
being poikilotherms, abiotically stressful envi-
ronment in changing climate is expected to im-
pact negatively their diversity and abundance;
and ultimately the extent of damage caused in ec-
onomically important agricultural crops (Porter
et al. 1991 ; Sutherst 2000 ; Bale et al. 2002 ; Ward
and Masters 2007 ). This may affect perilously
the agricultural production and the livelihood
of farmers especially in tropical and subtropi-
cal countries where larger proportion of work
force is directly depending on climate sensitive
sectors such as agriculture (IPCC 2007 ; Chahal
et al. 2008 ). The sound forecasting tools based on
detailed analysis of pest species’ life table under
varied environmental conditions will be crucial
in undertaking agroecoregion specific manage-
ment strategies against aggravating pest prob-
lems in the context of climate change.
The solenopsis mealybug, Phenacoccus so-
lenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae)
is considered to be one of the most devastating
pests of cotton in India, where crop losses range
from 30 to 60 % (Dhawan et al. 2007 ; Jhala et al.
2008 ; Nagrare et al. 2009 ). The mealybug spe-
cies native to North America has spread through-
out the country causing devastation (Nagrare
et al. 2011 ; Vennila et al. 2010 , 2011 ). Because
of its invasiveness and rapid spread across India
within a short period of time, P. solenopsis has
been the major focus of researchers. This chap-
ter describes a temperature-dependent simulation
model predicting population growth potential of
P. solenopsis under varied environmental condi-
tions.Material and Methods
Culture of P. solenopsis
Mealybugs collected from infested plants in the
field were cultured in laboratory on sprouted po-
tato tubers at 27 ± 2 °C temperature and 65 ± 5 %range of 20–35 °C with maximum population growth potential and shorter
generation length at 30 °C. The findings revealed significant changes in P.
solenopsis activity under climate change scenario, including expansion of
a geographical distribution range at higher latitudes and altitudes, marked
increase in the number of generations/year and increased abundance and
damage activity in present distribution range in India. The study generated
knowledge on temperature-dependent population dynamics and growth
potential of P. solenopsis crucial for undertaking agroecoregion specific
management strategies.Keywords
Climate change · Invasive pests · Phenology modeling · Risk mapping