104
Giese et al. ( 2011 ): http://dsrs.atmos.umd.edu/DATA/soda_hc2_700.nc
Gouretski and Reseghetti ( 2010 ): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-
sotc/2009/global-data-sets/OHC_viktor.txt
Ishii and Kimoto ( 2009 ): http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/bams-
sotc/2009/global-data-sets/OHC_ishii.txt
Levitus et al. ( 2012 ): http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATAANALYSIS/3M
HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/yearly/h22-w0-700m.dat
As explained in the text, values of OHC shown in Fig. 1.8 are multiplied by 1/0.7
= 1.42 prior to being used in the EM-GC, to represent the estimate that 70 % of the
rise in OHC occurs in the upper 700 m of the world’s oceans (Sect. 5.2.2.1 of IPCC
2007 ).
AerRF 2011 (W m–2)Fig. 2.21 Aerosol indirect effect scaling parameters. The black lines show values of total ΔRF of
climate in year 2011 (AerRF 2011 ), relative to pre-industrial baseline, due to anthropogenic aerosols,
as a function of the parameter used to multiply the total direct ΔRF of climate from all aerosols that
cool (αCOOL) and the parameter used to multiply the total direct ΔRF of climate from all aerosols that
heat (αHEAT). Parameters αCOOL and αHEAT represent the effect of aerosols on the occurrence, distribu-
tion, and properties of clouds: the so-called aerosol indirect effects. The red line shows the most
likely value of AerRF 2011. − 0.9 W m−^2 , from IPCC ( 2013 ). The black lines represent the IPCC
( 2013 ) upper and lower limits of the likely range (−0.4 and −1.5 W m−^2 ) and the upper and lower
limits of the possible range for AerRF 2011 (−0.1 and −1.9 W m−^2 ). This figure is included to indicate
that various combinations of αCOOL and αHEAT can be used to find a particular value of AerRF 2011. The
combination of parameters along the line marked Middle Road is the most likely combination of
parameters, based on detailed examination of various tables given in Chap. 7 of IPCC ( 2013 ). The
high road and low road represent the ranges of plausible values of scaling parameters, again based
on our analysis of (IPCC 2013 ). Further details about this approach for representing the aerosol
indirect effect in the EM-GC are given in our methods paper (Canty et al. 2013 )
2 Forecasting Global Warming