© The Author(s) 2017 115
R.J. Salawitch et al., Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope,
Springer Climate, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-46939-3_3
Chapter 3
Paris INDCs
Walter R. Tribett, Ross J. Salawitch, Austin P. Hope,
Timothy P. Canty, and Brian F. Bennett
Abstract This chapter begins with a description of the Paris Climate Agreement,
which was formulated during the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in late
- The goal of this agreement is to limit future emission of greenhouse gases
(GHGs) such that global warming will not exceed 1.5 °C (target) or 2.0 °C (upper
limit). Future emissions of GHGs are based on unilateral pledges submitted by
UNFCCC member nations, called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
(INDCs). We compare the global emission of GHGs calculated from the INDCs to
the emissions that had been used to formulate the various Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) trajectories for future atmospheric abundance of
GHGs. The RCP 4.5 scenario is particularly important, because our Empirical
Model of Global Climate (EM-GC) indicates there is a reasonably good probability
(~75 %) the Paris target will be achieved, and an excellent probability (>95 %) the
upper limit for global warming will be attained, if the future atmospheric abundance
of GHGs follows RCP 4.5. Our analysis of the Paris INDCs shows GHG emissions
could remain below RCP 4.5 out to year 2060 if: (1) conditional as well as uncon-
ditional INDCs are followed; (2) reductions in GHG emissions needed to achieve
the Paris INDC commitments, which generally stop at 2030, are propagated forward
to 2060. Prior and future emissions of GHGs are graphically illustrated to provide
context for the reductions needed to place global GHG emissions on the RCP 4.5
trajectory.
Keywords Paris Climate Agreement • Paris INDCs • Greenhouse gas emissions •
CO 2 - equivalent emissions • Unconditional INDC • Conditional INDC
3.1 Introduction
The Paris Climate Agreement has a structure distinctly different than its predeces-
sor, the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol was approved at the third meeting of
the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Kyoto, Japan during December, 1997. The
goal of Kyoto was to minimize the adverse effects of climate change due to rising