position and assert that most deforestation has little
to do with local populations and their impact on the
landscape. Laurance argues that business interests
supporting timber extraction, large- scale agriculture
and cattle ranching, plantation growth, and other
activities that have nothing directly to do with rural
subsistence by local farmers will soon dominate much
of the tropics. Even if large numbers of humans abandon
the forests and move to the city, the industrialists will
still invest in forest extraction industries and thus
closed forest is unlikely to return. In short, there is
no reason to assume that reduced population growth
will do anything to reduce the economic pressure that
results in deforestation.
Another contentious issue in the debate revolves
around extinction rates and loss of biodiversity.
Critics of Wright’s model take issue with its extinction
forecasts. Omitted from the model are such realities
as effects of deforestation on centers of endemism as
well as the collective effects of severe fragmentation
of forests, both of which contribute to potential
extinctions. Critics therefore contend that extinction
rates will be considerably more severe than is forecast
by Wright and colleagues.
The Wright- Laurance debate is not a winner- take-
all contest. There are strong elements of reality in both
positions. All parties seem to agree that primary forest
will continue to be degraded indefinitely and that
secondary forest will come to prevail in many areas.
No one doubts that extinction rates will accelerate.A Final Word
How much value should humanity place on the tropics,
their exceptional biodiversity, and their ecosystem
services, from which we all benefit? Ultimately the
tropics and all of their varied ecosystems and biota
will become what we humans make of them. The fate
of the world’s biomes is ours to decide. There seems
no room for doubt that biodiversity will decline during
the current century, and most of the decline will occur
in the global tropics. Extinction rates will rise too. It
becomes a question of magnitude of loss. There is no
doubt that climate is changing and that the long- term
effects of that reality are not fully clear.
But that said, there are numerous governmental
and nongovernmental associations diligently and
conscientiously working toward global conservation
goals, including in the tropics. Throughout the world
academicians from biology, ecology, conservation
science, climatology, geology, economics, political
science, anthropology, and other disciplines are
focusing their research agendas on the tropics.
Conservation agendas must also embrace another
reality. Many millions of people are not permitted
the luxury of concern over biodiversity. It is, in fact,
admirable that in so many tropical areas people of
limited economic means seem to be increasingly
knowledgeable about and proud of the biodiversity
in their nations. Most people in the tropics need to
concern themselves over basic daily nutrition, theirPlate 18- 14. Many ecotourists, such as these people, who were
part of a workshop taught by the author at the Canopy Tower
and Canopy Lodge in Panama, strive to promote conservation
goals and understanding with local people as their travels
take them to various tropical countries. Photo by John Kricher.Plate 18- 15. In spite of the satellite dish atop the roof, it
is obvious that many people of the tropics are of limited
economic means. Winning them over to support conservation
is essential. Photo by John Kricher.chapter 18 the future of the neotropics 387