260 The Environmental Debate
nuclear electricity very fast, Germany intends to
shut down all of its nuclear by 2022.The pace of technological advance is not the
only factor affecting the speed of any transi-
tion. Another factor is the law of long lead
times.The energy system is large and complex, with
an enormous amount of embedded capital. It
does not turn over with anything like the speed
of mobile phones. A power plant may have a
60-year life span or even more. A major new
oil field may require a decade or more between
exploration and first production.By the early 2030s, the world will be using a good
deal more energy. But the reason that the mix
will not be too different is [the] rapid growth of
demand in developing countries, where coal has
such a big role.The law of long lead times still remains. It is
really after 2030 that the energy system could
start to look quite different as the cumulative
effect of innovation and technological advance
makes its full impact felt.Energy efficiency remains a top priority for a
growing world economy. Remarkable results have
already been achieved, but technologies and tools
not available in earlier decades are now at hand.The real advances will be embodied in behavior
and value, but especially in investment—new
processes, new factories, new buildings, new
vehicles. There are many obstacles, ranging
from financing to the fact that efficiency usually
comes without the opportunity for good “photo
ops.” There is “no ribbon to cut.”The challenges of meeting rising energy needs in
the decades ahead, of assuring that the resources
are available on a sustainable basis to support a
growing world, may seem daunting; and, indeed,
when one considers the scale, they truly are.Half a decade ago, the United States was
expected to be a major importer of natural gas.
Now it is so well-supplied that it will export
natural gas. U.S. oil production is up almost 45
percent since 2008, and in fact the fastest-grow-
ing source of new oil development in the entire
world is the United States. This is not what was
even imagined a few years ago.
This revolution is having a major economic
impact. It currently supports 1.7 million
jobs—a number that could go to 3 million or
more by the end of the decade. It is happen-
ing so fast that thinking still has to catch up.
A key question for the future is when this rev-
olution will spread beyond North America.
One thing that is clear is that natural gas will
assume a bigger role in the world’s overall
energy mix.
The interaction of environmental concerns with
energy will continue to shape the energy mar-
ketplace. The biggest question is climate change
and carbon. Over 80 percent of world energy
is supplied by carbon-based fuels—oil, natural
gas and coal. About 75 to 80 percent of world
energy is generally expected to be carbon based
two decades from now.
Yet the growing importance of the climate
change question ensures that this ratio will be
strongly challenged both politically and techno-
logically as people strive to decarbonize.
A move away from carbon-based fuels has
already begun, but we are in the early stage of a
transition—or at least a remixing of the energy
mix. Wind and solar are growing rapidly, but
they are still a very small part of the overall
energy mix.
The two biggest sources of carbon-free electric-
ity today are nuclear and hydropower. Nuclear is
growing in some parts of the world, but in oth-
ers it is stymied. While China is building up its