◼ POLITICS Bloomberg Businessweek June 24, 201944
DATA: UNITED NATIONS OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME● Coca cultivation in
theAndeanregion, in
hectares
◼Colombia
◼Peru
◼ Bolivia2003 2017200k1000says.“Theminetookmylegoffbelowtheknee.”
The23-year-oldpolicemanwasoneofa group
ofofficersprotectingworkersdiggingupcoca,the
rawmaterialformakingcocaine,nearthecartel-
dominatedtownofTarazáinthenorthernAndes.
U.S. PresidentDonald Trumphaseffectively
threatenedtocutoffloansandotherformsofaid
toColombiaif it can’trestraincocaineproduction,
whichhasmorethantripledsince2013.
PresidentIvánDuque’sgovernmenthasstepped
uperadicationprograms,butthearmedgroups
thatprofitfromtheillegaltradearefightingback,
planting homemade mines onfootpathsand
betweencocashrubstoprotecttheirinvestment.
Atleast11 peoplehavebeenkilledand 84 injured
inoperationstoeradicatecocathisyear.
ThesacrificesCarvajalandhiscolleaguesmade
mightnotbeenoughtoappeaseTrump,whosaid
inMarchthatDuquehas“donenothingforus.”The
U.S.OfficeofNationalDrugControlPolicywillpub-
lishitsannualreportinthecomingdays.If cocaine
productioncontinuestohitrecords,Trumpmayfol-
lowthroughonhisthreatsto“decertify”Colombia
asa partnerinthewarondrugs.Thiswouldlump
theU.S.’sclosestLatinAmericanallyinthesame
roguecategoryasNicolásMaduro’sVenezuela.
UndertheForeignAssistanceAct,it wouldalso
meanthattheU.S.wouldendmosteconomicaid
andautomaticallyvoteagainstColombia’sgetting
loansfromlenderssuchastheWorldBank.
From 2000 to2012,Colombiancocaproduction
fellabout70%,andPerubrieflyovertookthecoun-
tryastheworld’sbiggestproducer.Butproduction
hassoaredsincethen,accordingtoUnitedNations
figures.Thetroublepickedupin 2015 whenthe
WorldHealthOrganizationissueda reportcalling
theherbicideglyphosateprobablycarcinogenic,
leadingthegovernmenttosuspendaerialspray-
ingofcocacrops.Duquewantstoresumethe
sprayingbutfacespoliticalandlegalchallenges.
Meanwhile,Colombiais growingenoughcocato
producealmost1,400tons of cocaine a year—more
than Peru and Bolivia combined.
Decertification is “a more real possibility this
year than in any past year,” says Adam Isacson of
the Washington Office on Latin America, which
studies human rights in Latin America. If coca pro-
duction rises even 5%, he says, Trump is likely to
ignore advice from Latin American experts in the
U.S. Department of State who’ve argued against
decertifying the country.
It wouldn’t be the first time he’s ignored them.
In March, Trump said he’d cut hundreds of mil-
lions of dollars in aid to El Salvador, Guatemala,
and Honduras over their failure to curb migrationto the U.S. In May he said he’d impose a tariff on
allMexicangoodsunlessMexicotooksignificant
stepstohaltimmigrationfromCentralAmerica.An
eleventh-hour agreement prevented the tariff from
taking effect. “The president has been frustrated
with the increase in coca production and cocaine
production and trafficking ever since he came to
officeandhaslookedforwaystosignalhisfrustra-
tion,”saysTomShannon,whowasTrump’sunder
secretaryofstateforpoliticalaffairsuntilJune2018.
“The frustration is felt not only at the White House
but also in our Congress.” White House representa-
tivesdidn’trespondtoa requestforcomment.
TheU.S.HouseofRepresentativeslastmonth
recommendedthatColombiaget$457millioninaid
nextyear,afterreceiving$418millionin2019.Inits
2020 financingplan,theColombiangovernment
saidit planstoborrow$1.6billionfrommultilateral
lenders. If it were cut off from multilateral loans,
the government would have to rely more on issu-
ing bonds, resulting in higher borrowing costs, says
Camilo Pérez, chief economist at Banco de Bogotá.
Shannon says decertification would be a mistake,
especially because Colombia has been a key ally in
theVenezuelacrisis.It couldturnColombiainto“a
prettyreluctantpartner”onsomeissues,hesays.
Colombiansusedtobetreatedlike“pariahs” over
drugs, says former Colombian President Andrés
Pastrana. In the mid-1990s, not only was the coun-
try decertified, but the president at the time, Ernesto
Samper,hadhisU.S.visarevokedafterit became
knownthatdrugtraffickersfinancedhiscampaign.
Pastranaoversawthestartofthemultibillion-
dollar counternarcotics plan known as Plan
ColombiawithPresidentBillClinton.TheU.S.has
givenColombiamorethan$10billion in aid since
the program began, more than to any other country
outside the Middle East and Asia. But Colombia now
produces more cocaine than when the plan started.
Carvajal and his fellow officers are on the front
line of the battle to reverse that trend. His unit didn’t
have any morphine, so he had to wait in agony for
a helicopter to lift him off the mountain. Doctors at
the hospital in Montería amputated his other leg.
Tara was unhurt, but it was her second major blun-
der, and the police put her up for adoption.
Today, Carvajal spends most of his days in
physiotherapy and learning to walk with pros-
thetic limbs. “It’s frustrating having lost my legs
so young,” he says. “Drugsbringa lot of negative
consequences, and notjusttopeople who con-
sumethem.”�MatthewBristowTHE BOTTOM LINE Colombia is one of the U.S.’s most important
Latin American allies, and suspending aid would do significant
damage to that relationship.