The Economist - UK (2022-04-30)

42 MiddleEast&Africa TheEconomistApril30th 2022

messagesonsocialmedia instead.Vote­

buyingislegal. Withsomuchofthepopu­

lationindesperatecircumstances,itmay

beeasierforpartybossestobuysupport.

Some244,000expatshaveregisteredto

vote,threetimesasmanyasin2018.Some

activistshopethediasporawillbelesslike­

lytobacksectarianparties.Butmanyex­

patshavestillnotgotinstructionsonhow

to vote. Embassy budgets have shrunk

amidthecrisis(diplomatshavebeentold

towatchtheirtoilet­rollconsumption).

Withwidespreadblackoutsduetofuel

shortages,ballotsmayliterallybecounted

inthedark.BassamMawlawi,theinterior

minister,saystheelectricityfirmaskedfor

$16mtopowerpollingplaces,morethan

theentireelectionbudget.Inthepastvotes

havebeencountedfairly;somefearthat

willnotbethecasethistime.

Theoppositionhasalsomademissteps,

chieflyitsfailure torunaunifiedslate.

CharbelNahas,aleftistformerminister,

hasbackedscoresofcandidates. Inmost

areas,though,theyarecompetingagainst

oneortwoother“alternative”lists,aswell

astheoldestablishedparties.

Lebanon’scomplexelectorallaw,which

evenmanyvotersdonotunderstand,mix­

essectarianquotaswitha proportional­list

system.Butpartiesthatfailtomeeta mini­

mumthresholdwinnoseats.Thecompet­

inglistswillsplittheoppositionvote.

Somereformerswanttomaketheelec­

tiona referendumonHizbullah,theShia

militia­cum­politicalpartythatisa power­

fuldefenderofthesectariansystem.That

hasledtodallianceswithfiguresfromthe

oldguard,suchasSamyGemayel,theboss

ofKataeb,a Christianpartywithparamili­

tarylinks.Othersrefusetoco­operatewith

partiesoftheoldera.

Expectationsarelow.Somecampaign­

erssayfourorfiveindependentmps would

countasa victory.Hizbullahretainsdeep

supportamongitsco­religionistsandre­

mainsthestrongestarmedforceinLeba­

non;it willnotbevotedintoirrelevance.

Electionnightisananticlimax,asthe

workofforminga governmentinvariably

dragsonlongafter.Thelastelectionwas

followedbyninemonthsofhorse­trading.

UnderLebanon’ssectarianpower­shar­

ingsystem,theprimeministermustbea

SunniMuslim.Yetitisunclearwhowill

leadthatcommunityaftertheelection.Na­

jibMikati,theprimeministersinceSep­

tember,isnotontheballot.NorisSaadHa­

riri,whospenttwotermsinthepost:his

FutureMovementisnotfieldinganycan­

didates.ByOctoberparliamentmustalso

pickapresidenttoreplaceMichelAoun,

whose six­year termis ending. Withso

muchuncertaintyaroundtwoofthetop

threejobs,itmaytakemonths toreach

consensusona newgovernment.

Lebanonhasnotimetowaste.OnApril

7ththeimfsigneda tentativeagreement

whichcouldincludea $3bnloan.Toun­

lockthatmoney,however,Lebanonwill

havetostartrestructuringthebanks.Par­

liamenthasyettopassa capital­controls

laworoverhaulbank­secrecyregulations,

amongmanyotherunfinishedtasks.

It ishard to beoptimisticaboutthe

vote.ManyLebanesewithmoneyorfor­

eignpassportshaveleft.Manylessfortu­

natearetryingtofollow.OnApril23rda

boatcarrying migrants illegally towards

Cypruscapsized.Atleastsevenpeopledied

anddozensmorearemissing.Asurveyby

ArabBarometer,a pollster,foundthat48%

ofLebanese(and63%ofyoungones)want

toemigrate.Whateverhappensatpolling

stationsinMay,manyLebanesewillcon­

tinuetovotewiththeirfeet.n

Why they vote with their feet

Lebanon, % change on a year earlier

Sources:WorldBank;CentralAdministrationofStatistics

*Includingnon-alcoholicdrinks †Estimate

10

0

-10

-20

-30

21†152010

GDP

500

400

300

200

100

0

2221202019

Consumer prices

Food*

All items

D

owningwhiskysoursatsunsetin

the bars of Jordan’s capital, Amman.

Puffing a cigarette in the rush­hour

traffic in Iran’s capital, Tehran. Raunchy

massages in Morocco’s Marrakech. Such

are the goings­on in the holy month of

Ramadan, when Muslims are meant to

abstain from food, drink and sex—from

dawn to dusk. Some residents of the

United Arab Emirates’ fleshpot of Dubai

now mockingly dub the month Harama-

dan, after the Arabic word haram, mean­

ing things that are forbidden.  

Most Middle Eastern states still crimi­

nalise public violation of the Ramadan

fast. But the fines imposed decades ago

are now lower than those for parking.

Jordan has a maximum penalty of 25

dinars (about $35). Oman’s is a riyal ($3).

The authorities mostly turn a blind eye.

“They are too frightened of the social­

media outcry to act,” says an Iraqi lawyer

in the shrine city of Najaf. Judges, he

adds, often interrupt cases in Ramadan

for a cigarette break. From Tehran to

Tunis, cafés often stay open, some after

customers discreetly tap on metal shut­

ters. Egypt, which once routinely jailed

people who flouted the fast, even penal­

ised a restaurant that refused to open its

doors; the police recently closed down a

fast­food joint after a Coptic Christian

complained she was refused service.  

In recent years Jordan introduced

Ramadan licences to sell food and drinks

at a hefty price, while still jailing people

who openly ignored the fast. At first cafés

took the precaution of curtaining over

their entrances and windows. Now they

are left open. An uninitiated foreign

visitor to Amman would barely notice

thatRamadan,predicted to end this year

on May 2nd, is a special month. 

Some trace this new laxity across the

Arab world to the authorities’ top­down

effort to oppose the extremism of Islamic

State and other jihadists, others to a

bottom­up revulsion against govern­

ments using religion as a tool of control.

As governments seek to diversify away

from oil, they also need to compete for

non­Muslim tourists. Besides, a profu­

sion of food­delivery apps makes it

easier to order without public scrutiny. 

Soaring prices this year may be cast­

ing a pall over nightly guzzling after two

years of covid­19 cancelled the feasts

entirely. Economic necessity is forcing

governments to maintain productivity

during what was by tradition an idle

month. A financial adviser in Amman

says that only two of her 25 colleagues

have been fasting.   

Religionandsociety

The breakfast club

A MMAN AND JEDDAH

Why more Arab Muslims are ignoring the Ramadan fast

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