186 Sigrid Faath and hanSpeter Mat teS
densely populated Nile Delta is endangered by the general rise in the sea
level and by the salinisation of fertile agricultural areas (WBGU 2007: 3).Even if migration for environmental reasons were to remain within the
borders of the respective country, in the medium term, migration from
the countries of North Africa and the Middle East to the EU will continue
to increase as the economic situation in countries such as Algeria, Tunisia,
Egypt, Syria and Lebanon has been deteriorating since 2011. As shown in
chapters 1 to 3 of this volume, a weak economy has always been one of the
major push factors of emigration, with a share of this emigration moving
to the EU.
5.5.3 Complicated circumstances for migration/transit migration
The increase in migration potential that is to be expected in the future does
not necessarily translate into a direct substantial increase in actual migra-
tion. The countries of Europe, as well as the home countries in North Africa
and the Middle East (due to pressure by EU countries), will take measures
to suppress migration (Mattes 2006a; also see Geddes in this volume).
In Europe, this will be effected through a better monitoring of the sea
routes in the Mediterranean Sea and between Morocco/Mauretania and the
Canary Islands as well the south-easterly smuggling route. This is regulated
by the European Agency for Operative Cooperation at the Borders (Frontex),
founded in 2004.^31
On the North African side, the measures taken – as, for example, the
establishment of new border-patrol units, or better surveillance of the
southern borders to prevent transit migration from sub-Saharan states
(Mattes 2006b) – have been interrupted by political changes since 2011,
especially in Libya and Tunisia. While there is a general lack of security
structures in post-Gaddaf i Libya, the police forces are in a process of re-
construction and are no longer concerned with the control of irregular
migration in Tunisia. Altogether, the clear reluctance on the part of North
African states to play the role of Europe’s policemen will persist and will
limit the effectiveness of this cooperation.
31 This agency coordinates the operative cooperation of the member states in protecting
external borders. It also provides support to the individual member states in training national
border-patrol police and establishes common training norms, prepares risk analyses, monitors
the developments in research concerning border control and monitoring, supports the member
states in situations demanding increased technical and operative assistance on their external
borders, and of fers the necessary support for the organisation of joint repatriations.