Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe Past Developments, Current Status, and Future Potentials (Amsterdam..

244 Heinz Fassmann

Figure 8.2 Age-specif ic emigration prof iles

0

5

10

15

20

25

0–5 5–9 10 –1415 –1920 –2425 –2930 –3435 –3940 –4445 –4950 –5455 –5960 –6465 –6970 –7475 –7980 –84 85+

Emig

rants per 1 ,0

00 in

habit ants

Age groups

EU/EWR tota l Poland esti mate d Austr ia Slovakia

Source: Eurostat (2004) and Polish Central Statistical Office (2006), author’s calculations

In a f irst projection of emigration potential, I connect the population
projections for the three MENA countries under discussion here with the
(unweighted) age-specif ic emigration rates from Slovakia, as an example
of a more settled population with low migratory interaction. As Table 8.4
shows, there would, nevertheless, be a certain potential for emigration – a
result that was already foreseeable from the demographic analysis. In 2015,
potential emigration would amount to about 0.24 million people for all
three countries and would increase to 0.29 million by 2050.

Table 8.4 Yearly migration potential (’000), Slovakian emigration profile

2015 2020 2025 2030 2050

turkey 93 97 100 102 103

egypt 102 110 117 124 142

morocco 40 42 43 44 45

tot al 236 250 260 270 290

Source: unpd (2011), author’s calculations

In a second projection, I use the age-specif ic emigration rates from Austria
(see Table 8.5). The Austrian example is representative of a ‘mature’ migra-
tion country with a high level of in- and outmigration, similar to Germany or