262 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann
a cyclical upturn of the world economy and the better-performing labour
market. Altogether these developments will lead to a decreasing emigration
potential in the long run, especially when the falling birth rates observable
now become effective.
9.4 Migration scenarios: Egypt
Egypt, a nation state with a very long history, has always played a major
role in political constellations within the so-called Maschrek area.^8 To the
present day, Egypt has remained a very centralised country, going back to
the time of ‘Arab socialism’. However, this centralised structure also has a
material and spatial basis mirrored in Egyptian politics and economics. The
most important lifeline of the country is the Nile River, with much fertile
land and important cities lining it and forming its delta.
As early as the eighteenth century, Egypt was able to excise itself from
the inf luence of the Ottoman Empire (of which it was formally a part). A
modern process of state-building occurred soon after Napoleon’s military
intervention and, after the withdrawal of the French, with the establishment
of state administrative authorities and modern educational institutes (for
the elite) and the promotion of industrialisation. The country’s attempts at
territorial expansion and at establishing an empire of its own, stretching
over Syria in the one direction and Sudan in the other, failed in the face of
European opposition. The export of cotton became of ever-greater economic
importance. But the notorious crises of state f inances – for example, in the
aftermath of the building of the Suez Canal – opened the gate to increased
inf luence by the British and eventually to their occupying the country to
secure their geostrategic and economic interests, particularly control of
the Suez Canal and cotton production. Following British occupation (until
1922) and constitutional monarchy (with considerable British inf luence
still present), independence was obtained in 1952 and Nasser (1952-1970)
called for ‘Arab socialism’ and ‘Pan-Arabism’.^9 Nasser implemented a
forced etatistic policy of modernisation emanating from military elites,
8 An area stretching to the east of Egypt that includes – besides Egypt – Israel, Palestine,
Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq.
9 Pan-Arabism as a movement strived to establish an Arab cultural nation – i.e., the community
of all Arabs from the Atlantic to the Persian Gulf, in a single national country in accordance with
the model of the Islamic Umma (community). Besides Nasser, the Baath Party in Iraq supported
this idea, eventually leading to the founding and short-term existence of the United Arabic
Republic (encompassing Syria and Egypt) as well as the Arabic Federation (Jordan and Iraq).