Migration scenarios: turkey, egypt and Morocco 267
Mediterranean Agreement of 2001 between the EU and Egypt, which
foresaw the eventual elimination of customs barriers. Nevertheless, the
state still contributes 40 per cent to the national product.
A further structural problem is the notoriously high level of national debt
which, in 2007, exceeded 100 per cent of GDP. The state subsidies for energy
(electricity and oil) for businesses and private households also represent
a major strain on the national budget. Yet, the existing high level of social
inequality prohibits their reduction or elimination.
The job market
The diff icult economic situation is ref lected in the Egyptian job market.
Off icially, the rate of unemployment has hovered between 8 and 11 per cent
in recent years (see Zohry in this volume), increasing to 13 per cent in 2013
(CAPMAS 2013). This rate, however, owes more to statistical whitewashing
than to reality – according to OECD (2005) estimates, the informal sector
comprises up to two-thirds of economic performance. In 2013, 48 per cent
of the population were off icially employed (CAPMAS 2013), apparently a
relatively constant value over the past few years (in 2001 it was 45 per cent,
according to ILO data). The continuing high rate of population growth of
1.8 per cent (see Ulrich in this volume) and the approximately 600,000 new
workers entering the job market every year demand a constant increase in
GDP of 6-7 per cent to keep up with the population growth (OECD 2005).
Unemployment af fects mostly youths and young adults, particularly
those entering the labour market for the f irst time (in 2005, 34 per cent of
those aged 15-24 were unemployed, according to Eurostat data). Particularly
affected are those with a secondary-school or university education (ILO
data). There is a great discrepancy between the education system and the
labour market – for structural reasons, the job market cannot absorb enough
qualif ied workers, and the education system produces qualif ied personnel
who, with the exception of the state apparatus, are not in demand on the
open market (World Bank 2008). The number of female workers is also
extremely low on the off icial job market.
Welfare and education
About a third of the total population is illiterate, overproportionally women.
The Egyptian education system is in dire need of reform, particularly the
primary-school area, which exhibits great regional diversity in school infra-
structure. The average schooling in Egypt is currently 5.5 years. Expenditure
on education in 2012 represented 4.4 per cent of GNI and has not risen since