274 Michael BoMMes, siMon FellMer and Friederike ZigMann
Table 9.6
Egypt: scenario 3
2012
2015
2020
2025
2030
gdp
eu
31,959.42
3 2 , 9 2 7. 8 2
34,607.47
36,372.80
38 , 228 .18
gdp
egypt
6 , 417. 2 8
7,567.56
10,613.89
11,15 5. 31
15,18 8. 25
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
99.29
93.94
98.73
90.20
gni
eu
32,352.00
33,233.39
34,756.05
36,348.48
38,013.87
gni
egypt
2,784.00
3,410. 52
4,783.43
5,326.09
6,226.22
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
100.86
- 37
104.92
10 7. 51
lpr
eu
59.62
59.62
59.62
59.62
59.62
lpr
e gypt
49.50
- 21
- 01
46.71
- 21
difference % (2012 = 100%)
100.00
122.63
124. 6 0
12 7. 5 7
92.98
emigration potential
1,701, 861
1, 824,465
1,952,908
2,084,269
average % differences
100.00
10 7. 59
106.64
110. 41
96.90
Final emigration potential
1, 831,080
1,945, 551
2,156,121
2,019, 620
reduced by network effect
4 5 7, 7 7 0
486,388
539,030
504,905
source: Fassmann; i
MF; un
; ilo
; authors’ calculations