euro-Mediterranean Migration futures 53
policies of the Arab oil countries. Currently, at least 8.7 million nationals of
these three countries live abroad. This is a remarkable increase in the light
of earlier expectations that this migration would decrease after the 1973 Oil
Crisis. In fact, between 1973 and 2003, the combined Moroccan and Turkish
expatriate population increased from 1.4 to 6.2 million. Besides natural
increase, this mainly ref lects the effects of family and asylum migration
(for Turks) and new labour migration (for Moroccans) to Southern Europe.
While the increase in the Moroccan emigrant stock has accelerated since
the late 1990s, that of the Turkish emigrant stock has stagnated in recent
years. Whereas, in 1973, the number of Moroccans abroad represented 42
per cent of the Turkish migrant stock, this percentage stood at 85 per cent
in 2003.
Figure 1.4 Turkish, Egyptian and Moroccan nationals living abroad
0500,0001,000,0001,50 0,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,0001970 1980 1990 2000 2010Nationals abroadTurkey
Egypt
MoroccoSource: Data compiled from various origin-countr y statistics in Avcı & Kirişci (2006), de Haas (2007b),
Fargues (2005) and Zohr y & Harrell-Bond (2003)
1.4.3 Migration-f low data
So far, we have used migrant-stock data as a proxy to study migration
f lows. However, since migrant-stock data include non-migrants (members
of the so-called second and third generations retaining the citizenship of
their origin countries) it is better to look at f low data, that is, to compare
the immigration rates of Moroccans, Turks and Egyptian nationals into
the main European receiving countries. The main problem here is that
reliable, long-term time series exist only for a few destination countries.
Moreover, with a few exceptions, off icial f low data do not include irregular
migrants, who are more likely to show up in migrant-stock data through